Bitcoin Waits for Fed’s Verdict Amid Bullish Setup and Narrowing Range

Bitcoin’s price has shown signs of cautious optimism amid growing anticipation for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision. As the market enters a pivotal week, Bitcoin is currently trading above $115,000, consolidating within a narrow price range of $114.6K–$117.1K. Analyst Axel Adler notes that this consolidation pattern reflects a constructive trend, with buyers gradually gaining control despite the absence of a clear breakout. The market is waiting for confirmation from the Fed rather than engaging in aggressive speculation, as traders and long-term investors closely monitor the potential impact of the central bank’s policy stance.

Bullish sentiment has been a defining feature of recent Bitcoin price action, with the Advanced Sentiment Index currently at 68.8%, nearing the upper boundary of high bull sentiment. This level of optimism among traders and investors suggests that the market is leaning toward expectations of higher prices. Adler argues that this environment creates favorable conditions for an upward breakout, particularly if the Fed announces a moderate rate cut, which could align technical structure, sentiment, and macroeconomic factors in favor of Bitcoin’s continued rise. Historically, similar sentiment dynamics have been observed during periods of significant price surges, especially when supported by major macroeconomic events.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently forming a consolidation pattern around $116,607 on the 8-hour chart. The price has been consolidating near short-term highs after a recovery from early September’s dip around $110,000. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has turned upward, indicating renewed momentum, while the 200-day SMA continues to act as a deeper support level at $115,387. The key resistance level is currently positioned at $123,217, and a break above $117.5K could increase the likelihood of a retest toward this level. Conversely, a drop below $114K could expose Bitcoin to further corrections in the $112K–$113K range.

The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to be a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 96% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the meeting, with a 4% chance of a larger 50 bps cut. Polymarket data similarly shows a strong consensus for a 25 bps cut. Traders are closely watching the language used by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in his post-meeting press conference, as even subtle shifts in tone could influence market sentiment. Some analysts argue that a significant portion of the expected volatility is already priced in, with the focus now shifting to how the market interprets the Fed’s policy signals.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin must break through key resistance levels to continue its upward trajectory. A sustained move above $118,000 could signal the start of a new bullish phase, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward all-time highs and beyond. On the other hand, failure to hold above $116K could trigger a correction toward $112K, the psychological level and the 100-day SMA. The market remains in a state of anticipation, with both bulls and bears awaiting a decisive signal from the Fed before committing to larger positions.