Bitcoin Volatility Surges as Analysts Predict 25% Drop or 30% Gain

Analysts are divided over the near-term trajectory of Bitcoin, with some predicting a significant drop to $92,000 while others anticipate a surge to $135,000. This divergence in opinions comes as Bitcoin has been consolidating after reaching an all-time high of $111,814 on May 22. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $103,498, leaving traders uncertain about the next major move.

Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is currently hovering around the $105,000 area, which is the middle of the monthly range and right at the monthly open. The price has been compressing, indicating that the market is waiting for a significant move. Based on this analysis, Bitcoin’s next destination could be either its monthly high of $110,000 or its monthly low of $100,000. If Bitcoin breaks down from the current range, on-chain metrics provider CryptoQuant speculates that the leading cryptocurrency might nosedive to $92,000.

On the other hand, crypto analyst Lingrid believes that Bitcoin might be experiencing a calm before the storm, with the target being $112,000. She noted that Bitcoin has printed three consecutive triangle continuation patterns, with each breakout sending the price higher into the $112,000–$114,000 resistance zone. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating within a descending wedge, testing the lower support band with potential for one more sweep. A rebound from this area may set up a textbook push into the same target zone. If the structure holds, the breakout could be stronger than the last.

Similar sentiments were shared by Cas Abbe, who stated that on-chain metrics were showing a breakout to the upside. The market analyst noted that the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which measures buying and selling pressure, is still making higher highs. Rising OBV indicates buying pressure, and if it continues to rise, Bitcoin will eventually break out of its consolidation range. Cas Abbe is convinced that Bitcoin will reach $130,000-$135,000 in the third quarter of 2025.

The OBV indicator is a technical analysis tool that measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator based on volume flow. Therefore, OBV helps confirm price trends because if the price is rising and OBV is rising, the trend is likely strong and supported by volume. This shows that a bullish picture is being painted in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to experience an uptick, given that they recently witnessed strong inflows despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently signaled a possible interest rate cut as soon as next month, citing a cooling economy and downplaying the inflationary impact of new tariffs as minimal and short-lived. He stated, “I think we’ve got room to bring it down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation. We’ve been on pause for six months to wait and see, and so far the data has been fine.”

Slashing interest rates is increasingly seen as a bullish signal for Bitcoin. Historic Fed rate cuts reduce fixed-income yields, pushing investors toward riskier assets. As Meltem Demirors from CoinShares notes, “when real interest rates decline, [Bitcoin’s] appeal grows.” The June 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates at 4.25–4.50%, yet projections shifted toward two cuts later in 2025. That pivot has lifted sentiment in crypto markets.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests stabilizing open interest and accumulating ask-liquidity near $106,000—signs of a potential short squeeze. Meanwhile, technicals remain constructive: Bitcoin continues respecting support at ~$103,000–105,000, with upside targets between $112,000–118,000, should bulls defend those levels. A dovish Fed enhances the case for Bitcoin adoption among institutions. Analysts argue earlier-than-expected cuts could trigger another rally toward $112,000–140,000 as major public firms and sovereign players continue accumulating Bitcoin, easier monetary policy amplifies their conviction.

Historically, Fed easing has coincided with crypto bull runs. For example, in September 2024, Bitcoin jumped ~2.5% ahead of anticipated cuts. Similar behavior is emerging in 2025: cooler inflation data, supportive Fed commentary, and easing expectations have fueled BTC’s break from the $105,000 range. If the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates potentially starting in July 2025, there is a high likelihood that Bitcoin will surge. With macro conditions aligning, such as inflation cooling and institutional adoption rising, cumulative tailwinds may carry BTC toward $112,000–140,000 in the months ahead. Nevertheless, the diverging on-chain signals should not be ignored based on the $92,000 dip warning, as well as the $135,000 breakout because Bitcoin currently finds itself in a ranging market.