Bitcoin Volatility Hits One-Year Low Ahead of Summer

Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range as summer approaches, with implied volatility remaining under pressure. The current implied volatility is at a one-year low, which might suggest that Bitcoin is 'cheap' on the surface. However, the actual volatility is even lower. Historical data from the past two years shows that short-term option volatility tends to decrease further before July each year. A similar trend was seen around the same time last year.

For Bitcoin to reignite broad market interest, the price would need to decisively break below $100,000 or above $110,000. However, there is no clear short-term catalyst to drive this trend at the moment. Recent macro news has caused brief fluctuations, but most have been seen as 'noise' by the market, quickly fading away without triggering a directional breakthrough.

Even with last Friday's U.S. job data beating expectations, leading to stock market gains and gold price declines, Bitcoin remained calm. It is trapped amidst a confluence of macro factors, lacking a clear direction anchor. Without a compelling narrative to drive a new round of upward momentum, the market is showing signs of fatigue. Open interest in perpetual contracts is decreasing, and the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs has also started to slow down.

Option trading in the past week also reflects this cautious market sentiment. A significant amount of upward call options expiring in July have been rolled over to September, with substantial trade sizes. This indicates that investors are postponing their bullish expectations to a later time period.