Bitcoin's Volatility Hits 563-Day Low, Market Cap Surpasses $1.87 Trillion

Bitcoin has shown signs of maturing as a global financial asset, with its price volatility reaching the lowest level in over 500 days. According to Vetle Lunde, the head of research at K33 Research, Bitcoin's weekly volatility hit a 563-day low on April 30. This decrease in volatility suggests that Bitcoin is becoming a more stable asset, with a more predictable price trajectory.

Bitcoin's market capitalization has grown significantly, making it the seventh-largest asset globally. It now ranks above assets such as Silver, Meta, and Saudi Aramco, with a market capitalization of $1.87 trillion. This growth in market capitalization further supports the idea that Bitcoin is maturing as a financial asset.

Bitcoin exchange deposits have also seen a meaningful decline, which suggests reduced selling pressure and an increase in conviction-driven custody behavior. Analysts from Bitfinex exchange noted that the divergence between price stability and shrinking exchange balances is critical, especially in a week following a significant options expiry and heightened macro volatility. In the past, similar patterns have preceded upside continuation, as reduced supply meets sustained ETF and institutional bid.

The recent market activity has reignited long-term bullish predictions. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028, attributing the potential surge to aggressive monetary policy and rising institutional interest. Hayes made this prediction during a keynote speech at Token2049 in Dubai, stating that the upcoming rally could be driven by more "money printing" from the US Treasury.

Hayes also predicted that the incoming US Treasury buybacks may present the next Bitcoin catalyst, which might mean that this is the "last chance" to buy Bitcoin below $100,000. Treasury buybacks refer to the US Treasury Department repurchasing its outstanding bonds from the open market to increase liquidity, manage federal debt, or stabilize interest rates.

Industry leaders in the investment management space have also predicted that Bitcoin may surpass the $1 million price tag. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said the odds of Bitcoin surpassing $1.5 million by 2030 have increased due to what she called the "institutionalization" of the asset. Wood noted that many institutional investors are now looking at Bitcoin and thinking they need to add it to their asset allocation because its return and risk profile looks so much different than all the other assets in their portfolios.

A potential rally to $1.5 million would assume that Bitcoin realizes an average compound annual growth rate of 58% during the next five years. This prediction is based on the institutionalization of Bitcoin and the increasing interest from institutional investors.