Bitcoin's Low Volatility, Hash Ribbon Signal +158% Surge

Bitcoin has entered a phase of unusually low volatility, with historical data suggesting that such periods often precede significant price surges. This quiet phase is marked by a decline in volatility to levels not seen in recent years, a pattern that has consistently been followed by major bullish moves in the past.

Historically, periods of low volatility in Bitcoin have been a precursor to substantial price increases. Past cycles in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023 have demonstrated that calm markets frequently precede major upward moves. This long-term decline in volatility also reflects the growing maturity of Bitcoin as an asset class, with each moment of calm consistently followed by dramatic price spikes.

Currently, Bitcoin is back in this low-volatility “green zone,” suggesting a potential coiled spring moment if history is any indicator. The reduced volatility could also be seen as a sign of the market’s continued maturation, as Bitcoin has been increasingly moving in tandem with traditional assets like stocks and gold.

Adding to the anticipation is the Hash Ribbons buy signal, which is flashing green—a reliable indicator suggesting a potential market shift. This signal typically fires up when Bitcoin’s mining difficulty resets after a period of miner capitulation, signaling renewed strength in the network. Every time this Hash Ribbon buy aligns with low volatility, as it is doing now, it precedes a massive rally.

Think of the surges in 2013, 2016, and 2020. The most recent buy in August 2023 already brought a +158% move. And yet, according to the chart, we haven’t even touched the high-volatility “cycle top” zone. The main event may still be ahead.

Skepticism is healthy, but the data doesn’t lie. Volatility is at unusually low levels, a new Hash Ribbon buy signal has appeared, and there are no indications of a macro top—Bitcoin has yet to enter the high-volatility zone typically seen at bull market peaks. Historically, every instance of low volatility paired with a Hash Ribbon buy signal has resulted in substantial returns without exception.

Of course, past performance is not a guarantee, but dismissing a 100% historical success rate might be more wishful thinking than sound strategy. At the time of writing, all indicators pointed upward. This might not mark the peak but rather the beginning of a significant ascent.