Bitcoin Volatility Drops Below US Stocks Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin has shown remarkable stability in recent weeks, with its volatility falling below that of major US stock indexes. This stability is particularly notable given the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, which have historically caused significant market disruptions. As of June 23, Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility stood at around 27-28%, lower than the S&P 500 (~30%), the Nasdaq 100 (~35%), and even the high-flying “Magnificent 7” tech stocks (~40%).

This low volatility is significant because it occurred during a period of heightened geopolitical risk, particularly after the US bombing of Iran. In previous cycles, such geopolitical shocks often caused much larger and more chaotic price moves in Bitcoin. For instance, at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, Bitcoin’s realized volatility was around 60-65%, much higher than that of US equities. However, this time, Bitcoin’s volatility remained relatively low, suggesting that most traders and investors did not react with panic and that BTC is maturing as an asset class.

The growth of long-term holders has also contributed to Bitcoin’s stability. Over 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by just 216 centralized entities, including ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries. This concentrated ownership is turning Bitcoin into a maturing asset class. The total Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has steadily increased in recent years, reaching a record high of 14.53 million BTC (30-day average) as of June 23, nearly 70% of the maximum 21 million supply.

Bitcoin’s price has been trending higher over the years as long-term holders remove supply from circulation while institutional demand rises. This dynamic is fueling sustained upward price pressure. Analysts expect Bitcoin to continue rising, with some projecting $150,000 by the end of 2025. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL chief commercial officer Eugene Cheung anticipate BTC’s price to continue growing above the $100,000 level in the future due to central bank money printing and strong institutional support.