Bitcoin Uptrend Supported by $103,300-$102,700 Zone Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin has maintained a short-term uptrend, supported by a robust zone between $103,300 and $102,700. This trend has been bolstered by geopolitical tensions and speculation around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could break out to $130,000-$135,000 by Q3 2025, although the current market analysis indicates a cautious approach due to recent fluctuations.

From June 14 to June 20, 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility. On June 14, the price briefly rose to $105,889 before correcting to $104,835. The market continued to fluctuate, with bulls and bears engaging in a tug-of-war. By June 16, Bitcoin showed signs of recovery, reaching an intraday high of $107,000. However, the following days saw increased volatility, with the price dropping to $103,622 on June 18 and stabilizing around $104,700 by June 20. This period highlighted the market's sensitivity to geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors.

The market dynamics and macro background further support Bitcoin's short-term uptrend. Low on-chain activity and large holders locking positions indicate a wait-and-see phase, with investors preferring to hold rather than trade. The derivatives market shows strong bullish sentiment, with funding rates remaining positive and options structure tilted towards out-of-the-money calls. Additionally, the continuous net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges suggests a high locking sentiment, further supporting the price stability.

Technical indicators also provide insights into Bitcoin's current trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55.528, indicating a neutral to strong market momentum. The Moving Average (MA) analysis shows that the price is below the MA5 and MA20 but significantly above the MA50, MA100, and MA200, suggesting a medium-term bullish trend with short-term weakness. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) analysis indicates a "Sell" signal, but the bearish momentum is weakening, awaiting a clear directional breakout.

Key support and resistance levels are crucial for understanding Bitcoin's price movements. The short-term support levels are at $103,500 and $103,000, while resistance levels are at $105,500 and $106,000. If Bitcoin can break through the $106,000 resistance with increased volume, it is expected to test the $109,000 area. Conversely, a fall below $103,000 could trigger a larger downward adjustment.

Market sentiment remains stable but slightly cautious. The Fear and Greed Index is at 48, indicating a neutral stance. Investors are neither showing strong greed nor significant panic, leading to more rational trading decisions. The overall sentiment is in a "neutral range fluctuation" state, without forming a trend-extreme signal.

The macroeconomic background plays a significant role in Bitcoin's short-term uptrend. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 5.25--5.50% and the hawkish tone from officials have weakened market expectations for liquidity expansion. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Trump's remarks have increased policy uncertainty, temporarily boosting Bitcoin volatility. Key macro data points, such as retail sales and jobless claims, will be closely watched for further guidance on market direction.

In summary, Bitcoin's short-term uptrend is supported by a robust support zone, bullish market dynamics, and cautious but stable market sentiment. Technical indicators suggest a medium-term bullish trend with short-term weakness. Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors continue to influence Bitcoin's price movements, with investors awaiting further clarity on policy and market direction.