Bitcoin's 'Uptober' Gains Momentum: Technical Bull Case Signals 70% ATH Chance

Bitcoin’s price has a 70% probability of reaching new all-time highs within the next two weeks, according to analysis by market expert Axel Adler. This assessment is underpinned by a confluence of bullish indicators, including elevated futures premiums, balanced market conditions, and technical setups suggesting a potential breakout. Adler highlighted that Bitcoin futures are trading at a premium to spot prices, with the seven-day basis exceeding the 30-day average—a sign of a bullish market regime. Additionally, Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-scores for 155-day and 365-day periods are near zero, indicating the market is neither overheated nor oversold .

The cryptocurrency is currently positioned just above its STH Realized Price, setting the stage for a potential consolidation phase followed by a surge toward record levels. Adler described this anticipated movement as an “uptober” for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. Historical data further supports this optimism: after all-time highs in the S&P 500, Bitcoin has averaged a 12% gain over 30 days and 36% over 90 days. If this pattern repeats, the price could reach $131,000 or $178,000 from current levels. Similar correlations exist with the Nasdaq, where Bitcoin has historically gained 16% and 46% over 30 and 90 days, respectively .

Technical and on-chain metrics reinforce the bullish case. Bitcoin’s price is trading within a bull flag pattern on the four-hour chart, with a breakout above $115,800 potentially triggering a rally toward $122,000. The 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages have formed a “golden cross,” a traditional signal of upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index stands at 68.8%, nearing the high-bull sentiment threshold of 80%, suggesting further upside is likely .

Market participants are also reacting to macroeconomic catalysts. The Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut in late September has bolstered risk-on sentiment, with Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching 20,685 BTC in the week ending September 16—the highest since July 22. This aligns with analysts’ expectations that lower interest rates will drive capital into Bitcoin and other risk assets. Options traders have placed $200 million in call bets on the $120,000 strike price, targeting a post-FOMC rally to $125,000 .

However, the path to new highs is not without risks. Bitcoin’s price remains in a tight range between $114,600 and $117,100, and a failure to break above $117,940 could trigger a pullback toward $116,420. Broader market volatility, geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-Venezuela clashes), and regulatory uncertainties—such as the stalled U.S. Department of Justice oversight requirements for Binance—could also disrupt the bullish trajectory .

Analysts at The Bull Theory and CoinCodex project Bitcoin could reach $129,744 by September 2025, nearly doubling its previous all-time high of $124,457.12. These forecasts assume continued ETF inflows, favorable derivatives premiums, and a dovish Federal Reserve stance. If Bitcoin consolidates above $115,000, the next key resistance lies at $117,940, with a successful breakout expected to drive the price toward $120,000 .

[1] title1 (https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/Newsbtc/980353)

[2] title2 (https://www.tronweekly.com/will-bitcoin-reach-new-ath-in-september-2025/)

[8] title8 (https://coingape.com/will-bitcoin-reclaim-120k-as-options-bulls-target-125k-highs-post-fomc/)