Bitcoin Unrealized Profits Surge 125% to $1.2 Trillion as HODLing Dominates

Bitcoin investors are currently experiencing substantial profits, with the majority of holders now in the green. According to a recent analysis, the total unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders have surged to $1.2 trillion, nearing the all-time high of $1.3 trillion. This significant increase in profits is largely due to Bitcoin's climb back above $107,000, which has pushed the vast majority of investors into profitability.

The average paper gains held by the average market participant stand at +125%, indicating that BTC investors are sitting on significant profits. However, this number is still lower than the +180% profitability seen in March 2024 when the price hit the all-time high of $73,000 and December 2024 when it hit $107,000. Despite this, the current price range seems insufficient to trigger significant profit-taking, with several metrics showing a strong preference for HODLing among investors.

The rebound followed a bounce off the $98,300 level, a historically important threshold that often marks a shift between bullish and bearish market regimes. This level is described as the cost basis for short-term holders, suggesting that the recent price action has helped restore confidence among newer investors. The market's calm response to the surge in profits is notable, as long-term holders are continuing to accumulate BTC, with metrics like Liveliness and realized profits trending downward. This behavior signals that investors are seeing current prices as a midpoint, not a peak—suggesting expectations for even higher valuations in the near future.

The decline in sell-side pressure can be seen in the total supply held by the Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort, which reached a new all-time high of 14.7 million BTC. This underscores that HODLing remains the dominant market behavior among investors, with accumulation and maturation flows significantly outweighing distribution pressures. The behavior of Long-Term Holders further reinforces this argument, as they slowed their spending after a brief uptick in sell-side pressure into the all-time high.

The Liveliness metric, which measures spending activity and profit-taking, saw significant upticks during the two previous BTC price all-time high formations. However, during the latest all-time high formation, Liveliness trended downward, reinforcing that HODLing remains the dominant behavior among investors. This suggests that a range expansion in price may be necessary to incentivize renewed spending activity.

The market jump comes after several days of consecutive, albeit relatively minor, decreases that followed geopolitical tensions. The decrease in tensions helped stabilize market sentiment and fuel price recovery. However, the risk of further downside remains, given that geopolitical headlines influence the crypto market.

Despite the surge in profitability, investor behavior shows a strong preference for HODLing. The current price range seems insufficient to trigger significant profit-taking, with several metrics showing this, namely declining realized profits, a downtrend in Liveliness, and Long-Term Holder supply hitting a new all-time high. This indicates that investors are holding through the volatility, suggesting a bullish outlook for the market.

With a $2.13 trillion market cap and a realized cap of $958 billion, Bitcoin appears to be entering a new phase of maturity, backed by growing conviction from both seasoned and newer participants. The supply held by long-term investors has reached a new record high, further reinforcing the idea that market participants are positioning for the next leg up.