Bitcoin's Unrealized Profits Drop 80% From Peak Levels

Bitcoin's price has been hovering just over 4% below its all-time highs, yet long-term holders are witnessing a decline in their unrealized profits. According to on-chain data, the average unrealized profit for these holders, as indicated by the MVRV ratio, is approximately 220%. This figure, while significant, is lower than the 300% and 350% levels observed during the market peaks of March and December 2024. The realized price for long-term holders is currently at $39,000, suggesting that substantial gains remain despite the drop in unrealized profits. This situation mirrors the October 2024 correction, indicating that while Bitcoin is strong, the market has not yet reached peak profit levels.

To align with previous cycle tops, it is suggested that Bitcoin would need to rise towards $140,000, a level many are anticipating. As Bitcoin trades near $107,000, market participants are preparing for a period historically marked by slower activity and the emergence of new narratives. A crypto trader notes that the third quarter of 2025 is typically characterized by slow price action and lower volumes, with summer months bringing reduced liquidity for both BTC and ETH. This period is often the quietest of the year but can set the stage for new opportunities as new narratives emerge. This perspective is shared by experts, who believe the bull run is intact but expect Q3 to be slower.

One concerning factor is Bitcoin’s Bull Score, which has moved into neutral territory at 50. This metric gauges the market conditions needed to continue a rally, requiring a reading of 60 or higher for upward momentum to continue. A reading of 40 would indicate a bearish environment. The current neutral level suggests that Bitcoin lacks sufficient bullish strength to support a sustained price rally at this stage.

Analysts have also highlighted a 195-day sideways movement since December 18, 2024, with only 36 days of notable price action. This analysis points to a long period of consolidation, which is typical during the summer months. The technical analyst noted that the market quickly absorbs selling, paving the way for potential future gains. Additionally, a prominent market expert suggests that Bitcoin's historical cycle performance indicates a potential peak in September or October 2025. To confirm the next leg of the long-term trend, Bitcoin needs to break into price discovery territory above $112,000 with strong volume and follow-through.

The halving cycle, which typically saw Bitcoin prices peaking within 18 months post-halving followed by corrections, is expected to lose its predictive power. This shift in the cycle dynamics adds another layer of uncertainty to the market. Some macro analysts predict that major disruptions to the global economy could materialize by early 2026, just as Bitcoin historically tends to peak 12–18 months before such events. This macroeconomic context could influence Bitcoin's price movements in the coming months.