Bitcoin's Undervalued Bull Case: MVRV Z-Score, Bhutan's Gold Rush, and the $100K Floor

The Bitcoin market is at a crossroads. With its MVRV Z-Score hovering at 2.4—a stark contrast to historical cycle peaks above 7—the data suggests we're still in the foothills of a potential multiyear rally. Combine this technical undervaluation with surging corporate adoption and Bhutan's sovereign Bitcoin strategy, and the picture becomes clear: $100K isn't just a price level—it's a structural floor for the next leg up. Here's why.

The MVRV Z-Score: A Bullish Omen at 2.4

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score is Bitcoin's most reliable valuation gauge. It measures how far Bitcoin's current price deviates from its “fair value”—the average cost basis of long-term holders. Historically, cycle tops (2017, 2021) saw this score hit 7+, signaling overbought conditions. Today's 2.4 is a whisper compared to those peaks, indicating the market remains inexpensive relative to historical extremes.

The math is simple:
- Short-term holders (holding ≤155 days) have a realized price near $97,000. Their MVRV ratio of 1.33 is far below the 3.11 for long-term holders (>155 days). This suggests most recent buyers are still in profit, but not yet euphoric.
- Long-term holders (LTH) control the real power. Their average cost basis is $33,500, and their MVRV ratio (3.11) has never hit the 12x peak seen in 2021. If this ratio reaches 8x—a fraction of past extremes—Bitcoin could hit $320,000 by late 2025.

Bhutan's Bitcoin Gold Rush: Sovereign Power Plays

While the MVRV tells us Bitcoin is cheap, Bhutan's institutional moves prove the undervaluation is being capitalized on. By July 2025, the Himalayan kingdom had mined 13,011 BTC (≈$1.3 billion) using hydropower—a 30–40% stake in its GDP—making it the sixth-largest sovereign holder globally.

The strategy? Hydro-powered mining + tactical sales. In July alone, Bhutan transferred 350 BTC ($38.5 million) to Binance, timed to coincide with Bitcoin's $112K all-time high. This isn't panic selling—it's disciplined wealth management. Compare this to Germany's $2 billion opportunity loss from selling BTC at $53K in 2022. Bhutan's approach—mining + selective selling—is a masterclass in leveraging crypto for economic sovereignty.

Corporate Treasuries: 159K+ BTC in Q2—A New Baseline

Institutional adoption isn't just geopolitical. Corporate Bitcoin holdings surged by 159,000 BTC in Q2 2025, per Glassnode data—a 22% increase from prior quarters. Firms like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and even legacy banks are treating BTC as a reserve asset, not a trading instrument.

This isn't a fad. The shift from “speculative mania” to strategic allocation means Bitcoin's demand floor is now institutional-grade. Consider:
- MicroStrategy has added over 100K BTC since 2020, now holding 1.5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply.
- Binance Pay partnerships in Bhutan and beyond are turning BTC into a payment rail, not just an asset.

The $100K Floor: Why This Cycle's Bottom is Sturdy

Combine the MVRV's undervaluation with Bhutan's mining dominance and corporate hoarding, and the $100K level isn't just a number—it's a psychological and technical anchor. Here's why:
1. Long-term holder resistance: LTHs won't sell below $33K (their average cost basis), creating a buffer for price swings.
2. Bhutan's “green mining”: With 600 MW of hydropower online, Bhutan can mine ~$1 billion annually—ensuring steady supply without panic.
3. Corporate demand: Firms will keep buying dips, as BTC outperforms bonds and stocks over multiyear cycles.

Investment Playbook: Hold Through the Cycle

For investors, the path is clear:
1. Buy the dip: The $100K floor is too well-supported to break. Use corrections to average into positions.
2. HODL through volatility: The next cycle peak (projected late 2025) could hit $300K+—but this isn't a sprint.
3. Watch Bhutan's next moves: If they sell another 500 BTC at $112K, it'll signal confidence—not fear.

Final Take: Bitcoin's Next Act is Sovereign and Structural

The MVRV Z-Score, Bhutan's mining empire, and corporate Bitcoin treasuries all point to one truth: this isn't 2017 or 2021. Bitcoin's valuation is rational, its adoption is institutional, and its fundamentals are stronger than ever. The $100K floor isn't a ceiling—it's the launchpad for the next bull leg.

Invest with conviction, but keep an eye on geopolitical risks and macroeconomic tailwinds. The crypto winter is over—spring has arrived.