Bitcoin's Triangle Tightens as Macro, Tech, and Traders Align for Breakout

Bitcoin’s price is currently under intense scrutiny as it approaches a pivotal $118k–$122k range, a threshold that could determine its next major directional move. The cryptocurrency is trading within an ascending symmetrical triangle pattern, a technical formation that often precedes a decisive breakout. As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $112,236, with the lower support trendline holding near $107,304. The immediate resistance lies at $117,156, a level aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. A confirmed breakout above this level could see Bitcoin surging toward $123,731, the 1.0 Fibonacci extension. Further ahead, the 1.618 extension at $133,882 represents another critical target.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 49.75, remaining above the signal line at 43.98, which reinforces a bullish bias consistent with the triangle’s structure. Analysts suggest that while consolidation within the triangle is still possible, any pullback toward the midpoint could provide a healthier base for a subsequent upward thrust. Beyond the $133,882 level, the 2.618 Fibonacci extension at $150,309 becomes a notable long-term target. Should Bitcoin manage to break out decisively from the triangle formation, it could set the stage for fresh record highs by year-end.

Adding to the technical optimism is the macroeconomic backdrop, particularly with regard to U.S. monetary policy. Donald Trump has advocated for a 100 basis points (BPS) cut by the Federal Reserve ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, a move that has already begun influencing market sentiment. Trump has criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for what he describes as delayed and rigid policy decisions, particularly with respect to inflation targeting. The weak August jobs report, which showed only 22,000 new jobs created versus the expected 75,000, has only reinforced calls for aggressive easing. With unemployment rising to a four-year high of 4.3%, the argument for a larger-than-expected rate cut has gained traction.

While the market is still pricing in a more conservative 25 BPS cut at the next meeting, Trump’s aggressive stance has amplified speculation about a series of cuts in the coming months. Such a policy shift could indirectly benefit Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and reducing the appeal of traditional interest-bearing assets. Market observers suggest that Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has grown in recent months, particularly with increased institutional participation.

Institutional buying also appears to be contributing to the bullish case. Metaplanet, a major institutional investor in digital assets, recently raised $1.4 billion through an upsized capital raise and announced plans to allocate the full amount toward Bitcoin purchases. This move not only signals continued institutional confidence in the asset class but also underscores the potential for increased long-term demand as companies seek to diversify their reserves into digital currencies.

In summary, Bitcoin’s current technical structure, combined with shifting macroeconomic expectations and growing institutional interest, positions the $118k–$122k range as a crucial decision point. A breakout could set the stage for a multi-month upward trajectory, with $130k and beyond within reach. The interplay between technical signals and macroeconomic developments suggests that Bitcoin’s next major move could be driven by a convergence of factors, with the Fed’s policy direction playing a particularly pivotal role.