Bitcoin Treasury Firms Face Scrutiny Amid Bubble Fears

Bitcoin treasury firms, which have recently gained popularity, are facing scrutiny from experts who warn that they may be the next bubble in the current market cycle. The debate was sparked by pseudonymous investor Stack Hodler, who described these firms as speculative manias disguised in corporate form. He argued that these companies are creating shares out of thin air to sell to people hoping to outperform Bitcoin, with little more than exposure to BTC as their core product. He warned that many of these businesses will inevitably be forced to dump their stacks one day, leading to a potential unwinding of the model.

Bitcoin podcaster Stephan Livera entered the conversation by referencing MicroStrategy’s Q1 2025 earnings call, where Michael Saylor laid out the rationale for the company’s persistent premium to net asset value. While acknowledging the cyclical nature of that premium, he argued there’s a broader structural context. He noted that Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset in a world of $1,000 trillion in assets, emphasizing that many large capital allocators remain unable to directly hold Bitcoin due to regulatory, tax, or mandate-related restrictions. He suggested that there’s a case for some treasury companies to exist long-term, so long as they’re managed prudently.

Stack Hodler clarified that he wasn’t referring to MicroStrategy but to the copycats that are popping up at an accelerating pace. He said he doesn’t deny that regulatory arbitrage might support a few of these firms in the short to medium term, but questioned the viability of companies whose primary activity appears to be printing shares and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. He expressed a preference for companies with real profitable businesses that stack BTC, viewing fiat engineering as shakier in the long term.

Scott Melker, host of “The Wolf of All Streets” podcast, added to the discussion, warning that Bitcoin treasury companies raising debt to buy Bitcoin could be the next bubble. Market structure analyst Dave Weisberger agreed that risk is present but took a more measured stance, noting that bubbles have to inflate before we worry about them. Technical analyst FiboSwanny focused on leverage and market structure, suggesting that if there’s a bubble forming, it’s likely in the financial instruments and leverage around Bitcoin, not in actual Bitcoin itself. Lark Davis took a more bearish tone, warning of a horrific unwind with devastating consequences later, especially for companies buying altcoins.

Swan CEO Cory Klippsten didn’t mince words either, stating that the trend has already jumped the shark and that it’s inevitable now. The current landscape includes dozens of public companies with direct Bitcoin holdings, some of which are drawing intense retail speculation. MicroStrategy remains the dominant force, with well over half a million Bitcoin on its books. Other names include Metaplanet in Japan, Semler Scientific, KULR Technology, and various new entrants who have reoriented their corporate missions entirely around Bitcoin accumulation. Many of these firms are now trading at multi-billion-dollar valuations, far above what their underlying business models would suggest.

However, the sustainability of the model remains in question. Most of these companies rely on issuing new equity at inflated valuations to finance further Bitcoin purchases, creating a reflexive cycle where rising BTC prices inflate share prices, which in turn enable more buying. That dynamic works beautifully in a bull market but can reverse quickly in a downturn. The debate over how institutional exposure is structured becomes increasingly relevant, with Stack Hodler framing it simply: Bitcoin is and always will be the best risk-return asset to hold in this space. Whether the new class of treasury companies represents innovation, opportunism, or simply a bubble waiting to burst, remains one of the key questions of this cycle.