Bitcoin Treasury Companies Face Collapse as NAV Multiple Drops 50%

The recent report from the venture capital fund Breed has sent shockwaves through the Bitcoin treasury companies, predicting that the vast majority of these firms are on the brink of collapse. The report highlights a grim scenario where the drop in Bitcoin’s price leads to a decrease in the Net Asset Value multiple (MNAV), weakening the financial foundation of these companies. This decline in MNAV makes each share less valuable, leading to a loss of funding and increased pressure on the market.

The core issue lies in the accounting mechanism of Net Asset Value (NAV). When Bitcoin prices fall, the NAV multiple (MNAV) of these companies collapses, making their shares less attractive to investors. Markets, which are more sensitive to narratives than raw numbers, severely punish this loss of premium. As a result, these companies struggle to raise new capital, and debt becomes out of reach. Shareholders dwindle, and the Bitcoin on hand loses its ability to attract fresh money, turning asset management into a survival game.

When credit deadlines approach, panic sales of Bitcoin come to worsen the market’s decline. This is known as the “death spiral”: a self-destructive chain where companies liquidate their treasury to avoid sinking, all while digging their own grave. The report identifies a handful of companies capable of defying gravity. Their secret weapon? Surgical execution. Strong leadership, coherent strategy, conviction-driven marketing, and above all: prudent management of the Bitcoin/share ratio. These companies don’t seek to ride the waves; they build ships capable of weathering storms.

The future lies in this distinction. The market rewards controlled boldness, not ill-advised euphoria. Michael Saylor’s model, controversial yet fascinating, is the illustration: accumulate, communicate, resist. The NAV premium is not just an accounting matter; it’s an indicator of market confidence. For now, most Bitcoin treasury companies use equity capital to finance their purchases. This limits the risk of contagion to the entire market. But if the trend shifts toward debt financing, the fuse could very well be lit for the next crypto crash.

Breed’s report thus sounds an alarm: the “hold and hope” strategy is no longer enough. As the market becomes more sophisticated, only entities able to transform Bitcoin into a strategic leverage rather than a passive burden will prevail. The era of Bitcoin treasury companies is reaching a critical phase. The mirage of guaranteed wealth from merely holding Bitcoin collapses against the brutal reality of the market. In this “death spiral,” it’s no longer about believing in Bitcoin; it’s about knowing how to use it with the precision of a goldsmith.