Bitcoin Treasury Companies in Crisis: 40% Now Trade Below NAV

The Bitcoin treasury sector, once a beacon of innovation and growth in the digital asset space, is now facing a structural collapse. As of late 2025, 40% of the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies trade below their net asset value (NAV), according to a report, a stark reversal from the premium-driven model that fueled rapid expansion earlier in the year. This crisis is driven by a confluence of falling Bitcoin prices, equity valuation declines, and a broken capital-raising mechanism, leaving many firms underwater on their Bitcoin holdings. Yet, amid the turmoil, strategic M&A opportunities are emerging, with stronger players poised to consolidate the sector and reshape its future.

Structural Collapse: From Premiums to Discounts

The Bitcoin treasury model historically relied on issuing shares at a premium to NAV, allowing companies to raise capital and buy more Bitcoin without diluting shareholders. This strategy thrived when Bitcoin prices and equity valuations were rising. However, the tables have turned. Bitcoin prices have declined by over 30% since October 2025, and equity premiums have evaporated, with nearly 60% of Bitcoin treasury companies now holding Bitcoin at prices higher than its current market value.

Prominent examples illustrate the severity of the downturn. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which once traded at a sevenfold premium to its Bitcoin holdings, now offers a 17% discount. Similarly, Metaplanet's premium has collapsed from 237% earlier in the year to just 7% according to financial reports. These companies, like many others, can no longer raise capital without diluting existing shareholders, effectively stalling their growth strategies. The result is a sector where only one Bitcoin treasury company outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, while all others lagged behind.

Market Dynamics and Institutional Implications

The collapse of the premium model has exposed vulnerabilities in the Bitcoin treasury business. Companies that relied on continuous share issuance to fund Bitcoin purchases are now trapped in a cycle of declining value. Prenetics, for instance, has abandoned its Bitcoin purchasing strategy. Meanwhile, analysts warn of a wave of consolidation, where stronger firms like Strategy may acquire weaker ones to consolidate Bitcoin holdings and improve operational efficiency according to industry analysis.

This trend is not hypothetical. In August 2025, KindlyMD merged with Nakamoto Holdings to create a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury vehicle. The merger, supported by a $710 million capital raise, allowed KindlyMD to acquire 5,744 BTC at an average price of $118,204 per Bitcoin, positioning it among the top 20 corporate Bitcoin holders. The deal exemplifies how strategic mergers can provide liquidity and scale in a struggling market.

Strategic M&A Opportunities: A Path Forward

The broader crypto M&A landscape in 2025 saw 265 transactions totaling $8.6 billion, driven by institutional demand and regulatory clarity. While most of these deals involved exchanges and infrastructure firms (e.g., Coinbase's $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit), the Bitcoin treasury sector is now entering a similar consolidation phase. Executives predict that 2026 will be defined by M&A activity, as weaker firms are absorbed by stronger balance sheets.

However, not all experts are bullish. Brian Rudick of Upexi argues that sellers lack incentives to trade below 1.0x NAV, and buyers can often acquire Bitcoin directly in the market according to market analysis. This suggests that M&A may be selective, favoring firms with unique assets or operational efficiencies. For example, Hyperion DeFi is exploring revenue generation through onchain perpetual futures, while BitMine generates income via Ethereum staking according to industry reports. These diversification strategies could make certain treasuries more attractive acquisition targets.

Regulatory Tailwinds and Institutional Adoption

Regulatory developments are further shaping the M&A landscape. The GENIUS Act, which provided a federal framework for stablecoins in 2025, and the anticipated Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in 2026, are expected to boost institutional adoption and drive consolidation according to market forecasts. Additionally, the 2026 Bitcoin halving event and the mining of the 20 millionth Bitcoin reinforce Bitcoin's scarcity model, making it an appealing store of value for corporate treasuries according to market analysis.

Conclusion: A Sector in Transition

The Bitcoin treasury sector is at a crossroads. While 40% of firms trade below NAV and many struggle to stay afloat, the crisis also creates opportunities for disciplined acquirers. Strategic M&A, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption could professionalize the sector, shifting it from speculative buy-and-hold strategies to diversified, institutional-grade operations. For investors, the key will be identifying firms with strong balance sheets, innovative revenue models, and the capacity to navigate the coming wave of consolidation.

As the market resets in 2026, the Bitcoin treasury sector may yet emerge stronger-provided it can weather the structural collapse and seize the strategic opportunities ahead.