Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Adapting Strategy After mNAV Compression Hit Sector

The Bitcoin treasury sector, once a symbol of institutional crypto optimism, has faced a brutal bear market in 2025. Market net asset value (mNAV) compression-a metric comparing a company's market cap to the value of its Bitcoin holdings-has shrunk dramatically, with multiples collapsing from 2.0x to 1.23x for major players like Strategy (MSTR), according to a Coinotag analysis. This compression reflects a broader loss of investor confidence, driven by macroeconomic headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and the U.S. government shutdown in late 2025. Yet, amid the carnage, signs of stabilization and strategic adaptation are emerging. This article evaluates whether the sector is nearing a bottom and identifies reentry opportunities for investors willing to navigate the volatility.

The mNAV Compression Crisis: A Sector in Retreat

Bitcoin treasury companies have long been criticized for their speculative valuations, but the 2023–2025 bear market exposed vulnerabilities. Strategy, the most prominent corporate Bitcoin holder, saw its market cap plummet 43% from $122.1 billion in July 2025 to $69.5 billion by late November, as mNAV multiples contracted sharply, as noted in the Coinotag analysis. Similarly, Metaplanet and other adopters faced over 40% declines in market value, exacerbating liquidity concerns during periods of Bitcoin price instability.

The compression was not merely a function of Bitcoin's price action. Institutional investors began rebalancing portfolios, favoring traditional assets like government bonds over crypto-exposed equities. This shift was amplified by short sellers like James Chanos, who had previously bet against Strategy. However, Chanos's recent closure of his short position-alongside his Bitcoin long-signals a potential inflection point. "The bear case has largely played out," he noted, citing improved macroeconomic clarity and a stabilizing mNAV environment, according to the Coinotag analysis.

Strategic Shifts: Dollar-Cost Averaging and Long-Term Commitment

Despite the bearish backdrop, corporate Bitcoin adoption has not stalled. Strategy's recent purchase of 487 BTC (worth $49.9 million) underscores its unwavering commitment to Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, as reported by FinanceFeeds. CEO Michael Saylor has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin's scarcity and inflation-resistant properties make it superior to cash or bonds-a thesis now tested by extreme volatility.

Meanwhile, Hyperscale Data (GPUS) has adopted a disciplined dollar-cost-averaging approach, allocating $47.25 million in cash to expand its Bitcoin treasury. As of November 9, 2025, its holdings totaled $75.25 million in Bitcoin, representing 66% of its market cap, according to a StockTitan report. This strategy, which prioritizes gradual accumulation over speculative bets, may appeal to investors seeking to mitigate short-term price swings.

Evaluating the Bottoming Process: Are We at a Turning Point?

The sector's bottoming process hinges on two factors: macroeconomic stability and institutional rebalancing. The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown in late 2025 provided a catalyst, with Bitcoin rising 2% to $106,430 within 50 minutes of the Senate passing budget bills, according to a Coinrise article. This rapid rebound suggests that liquidity constraints and political uncertainty were key drivers of the selloff, not necessarily a rejection of Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

Pierre Rochard of The Bitcoin Bond Company argues that the bear market for treasury stocks is "gradually coming to an end," citing the closure of short positions and renewed corporate buying, as reported in the Coinrise article. However, risks remain. Propanc Biopharma's recent $100 million crypto treasury initiative, while innovative, caused a 10.5% share price drop, highlighting market skepticism toward unproven business models.

Reentry Opportunities: Valuation Gaps and Institutional Confidence

For investors, the compressed mNAV multiples present a paradox: while valuations are unattractive in isolation, they reflect a discount to underlying Bitcoin holdings. Strategy's implied premium-now $15 billion after peaking at $70 billion-has created a potential arbitrage opportunity for those who believe Bitcoin's price will recover, according to the Coinotag analysis. Similarly, Hyperscale Data's treasury now constitutes 66% of its market cap, a level not seen since 2023, as noted in the StockTitan report.

Reentry strategies should prioritize companies with disciplined accumulation plans and strong balance sheets. Strategy's $49.9 million Bitcoin purchase, for instance, was funded through operational cash flow, reducing leverage risks, according to FinanceFeeds. In contrast, firms relying on debt or equity financing (like Propanc) face higher scrutiny.

Conclusion: A Sector at an Inflection Point

Bitcoin treasury companies are navigating a complex transition. While mNAV compression has eroded valuations, strategic adaptations-such as dollar-cost averaging and long-term Bitcoin accumulation-suggest a sector preparing for the next cycle. The closure of short positions and macroeconomic stabilization hint at a potential bottom, but investors must remain cautious. For those with a multi-year horizon, the current discount to Bitcoin's intrinsic value may represent a compelling entry point-provided they can withstand further volatility.