Bitcoin Trapped in Death Cross as Institutional Demand Remains Fragile

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• Bitcoin remains below both the 50-day and 200-day EMA, maintaining the death cross pattern.
• Institutional ETF flows show initial inflows followed by outflows, signaling fragile demand.
• Key technical indicators like ADX and RSI suggest a neutral to bearish outlook, with support at $88,000–$90,000 and resistance at $94,000–$97,000.

Bitcoin currently trades around $90,673, down 0.66% on the day. The Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 24.2, just below the 25 threshold that indicates a strong trend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.4, placing Bitcoin in neutral territory. Institutional flows show $1.2 billion in inflows in the first two trading days of 2026, followed by $719 million in outflows, indicating cautious institutional participation.

The death cross pattern—where the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA— signals further bearish movement. Support is currently at $88,000–$90,000, and a break below this range could lead to further declines toward $80,000. Resistance is at $94,000–$97,000, with the $94,000 level acting as a key psychological barrier.

What Is Driving Bitcoin's Volatility?

Bitcoin's price movement is influenced by a variety of macroeconomic factors, including investor sentiment, supply and demand dynamics, and institutional involvement according to market analysis. The 2025 staking market shows significant growth, with staking rates on major networks exceeding 50%. Staking assets can be categorized into established public chain assets and emerging network assets, each offering different risk-return trade-offs.

The 2025 crypto market has seen a shift from Bitcoin mining to Ethereum staking and diversified mining strategies. Bitcoin mining remains a capital-intensive activity with exposure to price cycles and technological optimization through AI and cooling systems. Institutional investors now employ hedging strategies to manage volatility.

What Is Institutional Demand Saying About Bitcoin?

Institutional demand for Bitcoin is weakening, as evidenced by Q4 2025 ETF outflows and a drop in holdings by about 24,000 BTC. This mirrors pre-2022 bear market patterns, indicating a potential market downturn. Meanwhile, XRP has outperformed, with a 25% gain and $100 million in ETF inflows early in 2026. This divergence highlights a structural shift in the market where Bitcoin is losing demand while altcoins find new narratives.

Bitcoin ETFs initially saw $1.2 billion in inflows during the first two days of 2026, but this was followed by outflows of $719 million, signaling fragile institutional demand. The death cross pattern—where the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA— suggests further bearish movement. Support is currently at $88,000–$90,000, and a break below this range could lead to a drop toward $80,000.

What Does the Future Hold for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin remains in bearish territory with the death cross in place, indicating potential for further downside. Institutional ETF flows show initial inflows followed by outflows, signaling fragile demand. Key technical indicators like ADX and RSI suggest a neutral to bearish outlook, with support at $88,000–$90,000 and resistance at $94,000–$97,000.

Prediction markets remain cautiously optimistic about a potential recovery, with traders estimating a 4.9% chance of a 2026 Crypto Winter and a 20% chance of a new Bitcoin all-time high before July. Analysts like Tom Lee from Fundstrat predict a pullback in the first half of 2026 followed by a rally in the second half, with a year-end target of $115,000. Until Bitcoin can reclaim $94,000 with conviction, the market is expected to remain in a sideways grind.