Bitcoin Trades Steadily Between $95,000 and $117,000 for Six Months

Bitcoin has been trading within a defined range for the past six months, with the lower boundary set at $95,000 and the upper boundary at $117,000. This range is determined by the short-term holder (STH) cost basis model, which indicates that Bitcoin has maintained stability despite recent price fluctuations. The upper boundary, which is +1 standard deviation (STD) above the STH cost basis, was tested only once in late May, confirming that the market has avoided overheated territory.

The price action of Bitcoin has remained between the STH mean and +1 STD, avoiding the overheated zone and showing disciplined market behavior. This positioning reflects consistent demand from recent market participants and suggests that the market has avoided excess during high volatility. The model shows traders respected structural limits, instead anchoring prices within historical mean ranges. That positioning now acts as a barrier to aggressive overvaluation.

Despite the rally in May, Bitcoin failed to touch the $117,000 overheated band, confirming measured demand over speculative momentum. This signals that momentum cooled naturally, without triggering extreme speculative pressure. The price structure suggests that the market avoided excess during high volatility, and the model shows traders respected structural limits, instead anchoring prices within historical mean ranges. That positioning now acts as a barrier to aggressive overvaluation.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $95,000 line in late February and early April but quickly reclaimed that support. These reactions show traders continue defending short-term cost levels, reinforcing this band as a key pivot zone. Support below remains untested, with the −1 STD (green band) sitting near $85,000. By the end of June, Bitcoin traded just below the +1 STD boundary, resting near $108,000. The chart confirms Bitcoin avoided any exaggerated price action despite market shifts. Traders watching the STH cost basis model now use $95,000 and $117,000 as short-term structure pivots.