Bitcoin Trades in $100,000-$110,000 Range Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Reduced Speculation

Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range of $100,000 to $110,000, reflecting a period of market caution and reduced speculative activity. The cryptocurrency briefly dipped to around $99,000 over the weekend due to renewed geopolitical tensions, but quickly rebounded to $106,000 following de-escalation headlines. This price action highlights the sensitivity of Bitcoin to macro headlines, but the overall market structure remains intact as long as the price stays above the $93,000–$100,000 support zone.

The recent volatility triggered liquidations in the futures market, with longs and shorts both seeing significant losses. Open interest in BTC terms fell by roughly 7%, indicating a temporary clearing of speculative positioning. Despite this reset, signs of a cooling market are evident, with realized profits over the last 30 days beginning to taper off. The 7-day moving average of on-chain transfer volume has also declined by about 32%, reflecting reduced capital flows on-chain and lower engagement compared to earlier bullish phases.

Spot volume during the recent push to $111,000 failed to match earlier peaks, coming in at $7.7 billion. This lack of spot demand during recent highs reveals reduced speculative participation, a key characteristic of consolidation periods. In contrast, the futures market has remained more active, with trading volumes staying elevated even as prices climbed. However, traders are now showing more restraint, with both the annualized funding rate and the 3-month futures rolling basis trending downward. This indicates less aggressive long positioning and possibly a rise in arbitrage or short strategies.

The sustained futures engagement without strong directional conviction suggests a broader fatigue across speculative participants. While futures volumes remain elevated, the tone of participation has become more defensive. Caution prevails even as markets appear stable. Bitcoin’s current price range reflects a cooling phase, driven by fading profitability, reduced transfer activity, and softening spot volume. The market is now awaiting new catalysts to regain upward momentum.

Glassnode’s analysis suggests that holding above the $93,000–$100,000 level is crucial for maintaining the bullish structure. This zone has repeatedly served as a safety net since early 2025. Should this support level fail, capitulation from holders in that band could trigger further downside. For now, Bitcoin appears to be digesting previous gains. Without renewed investor activity and stronger profitability metrics, a breakout to fresh all-time highs remains unlikely in the short term. The market remains in a consolidation phase, monitoring macro developments and waiting for stronger demand signals.