Bitcoin Trades in 10% Range as Smaller Investors Drive Buying

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a narrow range of $100,000 to $110,500 for the second consecutive week. This price action has been characterized by smaller investors taking the lead on the buy side, replacing the larger whales who had previously dominated the market. The report highlighted that BTC has been confined within a 10% channel, with the upper boundary set by the January high of $109,590 and the lower boundary near the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) of $99,474.

Despite a brief dip below the STH-RP last week, which saw Bitcoin touch a low of $98,220, the cryptocurrency quickly rebounded to the upper boundary of the range. This rebound was driven by buyers stepping in near the six-figure mark, indicating a near-term equilibrium where unrealized profits remain significant but below the levels that previously fueled heavier distribution.

The market's current state suggests a wait-and-see approach, with neither side having enough leverage to force a decisive break. The STH-RP continues to rise as newer participants, including exchange-traded-fund allocators, add coins to their holdings. This pattern mirrors the 2024 scenario, where exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows repeatedly defended the STH-RP during the climb to earlier peaks.

The report emphasized that the metric’s overlap with current price lows reinforces it as the range’s structural floor. The price action above this level suggests an upward bias until macroeconomic data or shifts in liquidity break the deadlock. Positioning shifts toward smaller holders have been observed, with derivatives traders showing less conviction at the upper limit. A $1.8 billion (5%) drop in aggregate open interest on July 4 erased two days of gains, signaling that futures accounts closed longs rather than chasing higher prices.

On-chain cohort data corroborate this distribution shift. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC shed roughly 14,000 BTC since June 30, while short-term holders added about 382,000 BTC in the same window. This supply transfer reflects mid-sized whales trimming their exposure as retail and institutional newcomers step in around spot dips, a pattern seen in previous rallies.

Seasoned wallets are reducing their holdings amid uncertainty, but steady inflows from ETFs, balance sheet allocations, and smaller buyers offset the outflow, keeping price compression orderly. However, reliance on fresh entrants amplifies sensitivity to any future volatility because these holders lack historical anchoring above $100,000. The report also observed weakening short-term momentum after multiple failures to clear $110,500, with each rejection coinciding with futures liquidation waves and a decline in open interest, indicating limited follow-through strength.

Despite these challenges, bulls retained structural control by defending the STH-RP and preventing sustained closes below it. The standoff is framed as a “balanced market,” with neither side possessing enough leverage to force a decisive break. A macro driver, such as changes in rate expectations, liquidity shifts, or an ETF flow spike, would likely dictate the direction when it arrives.