Bitcoin Traders Hedge Against 100,000 Price Drop Amid Uncertainty

Bitcoin options traders are actively positioning themselves to hedge against a potential price decline to the $100,000 level. This strategic move comes amidst rising geopolitical and economic uncertainties that are affecting global markets. The put-to-call volume ratio on the crypto derivatives exchange Deribit surged to 2.17 over the past 24 hours, reflecting a strong tilt toward protective bets. Put options, which offer downside insurance by giving the holder of the contract the right to sell at a certain price, saw outsized demand, particularly in short-dated contracts. For options expiring June 20, open interest in puts struck at $100,000 now tops the board, with a put-to-call ratio of 1.16, underscoring concern about a near-term price fall.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $111,980 on May 22, and is up more than 50% since a now crypto-friendly Donald Trump was elected president of the U.S. for a second time in November. The largest cryptocurrency was little changed at about $104,377 on Wednesday. The caution comes as Federal Reserve policymakers navigate a highly uncertain environment as geopolitical tension in the Middle East and volatile energy prices add to inflation and labor market risks tied to the Trump administration’s tariff policies. With U.S. officials widely expected to hold policy steady for a fourth straight meeting later Wednesday, markets will focus on the Fed’s latest projections for growth, unemployment and interest rates.

“A hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve could strengthen the US dollar and trigger a test of the psychological $100,000 mark,” Javier Rodriguez-Alarcón, chief investment officer of XBTO, wrote in a note. “Simultaneously, the geopolitical situation remains a wildcard; any credible de-escalation in the Middle East could serve as a significant risk-on catalyst, while a further deterioration would likely trigger another move down across risk assets.”

The recent dip in Bitcoin's price to $105,000 has sparked a debate among market participants. Some view this as a strategic entry point to accumulate Bitcoin at a discounted price, while others see it as a warning sign of deeper market weakness. Technical analysis suggests that the $105,000 mark is a critical battleground between bulls and bears. Immediate support levels are identified at $104,000–$103,000, with a crucial psychological floor at $100,000. A breach below this level could trigger a slide toward $93,000. However, technical indicators such as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $106,028 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 suggest resilience. The Williams %R at -95.85 indicates extreme oversold conditions, which is a classic setup for a rebound. Additionally, a bullish Doji candlestick on the weekly chart hints at market indecision but not despair.

Macroeconomic trends also favor bulls. Bitcoin ETF inflows, despite some institutional outflows, show resilience with weekly inflows hitting significant levels. This aligns with the analysis linking Bitcoin's price to the global M2 money supply, suggesting that Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by August as central banks continue to flood markets with liquidity. On-chain activity further bolsters optimism, with daily active addresses rising and the RHODL Ratio remaining elevated, indicating that long-term holders are not capitulating.

However, bears are not without their ammunition. The MACD line signals bearish momentum, and regulatory uncertainties, such as delayed rulings on crypto staking and compliance deadlines, could spook markets. Geopolitical risks, including tensions in various regions, are simmering but have not yet triggered panic selling. The Fear & Greed Index at 57 reflects cautious optimism rather than euphoria.

For long-term investors, the 2.25% drop to $105,000 appears to be a correction rather than a collapse. Bulls have the upper hand if Bitcoin holds the $100,000 level, validating the M2 correlation and ETF inflows. The path to $150,000 hinges on breaking the $106,000–$107,000 resistance, with $107,743 acting as a final gatekeeper. Historical backtests confirm that entries at support levels like $100,000–$105,000 have delivered significant returns with moderate risk-adjusted returns.

Actionable advice for long-term investors includes dollar-cost averaging into dips below $106,000, targeting entry points near $103,000, and avoiding overexposure until Bitcoin closes above $107,500. Monitoring ETF flows and regulatory headlines is crucial, as sustained inflows or positive rulings could catalyze a breakout. Volatility is seen as the price of long-term gains, and for investors with a multi-year horizon, this volatility presents a buying opportunity rather than a red flag.