Bitcoin Traders Face 50-50 Odds For $109,000 Breakout By July 11

Bitcoin is currently priced at $109,090, with traders on Myriad split on whether it will breakout above $109,000 by July 11. The prediction market shows a 50-50 chance, with traders changing their minds throughout the week. The razor-thin margin for error makes this prediction particularly intriguing, as it requires Bitcoin to be trading above $109,000 at a specific moment—11:59pm UTC on July 11.

The technical picture shows a battle between bullish market structure and bearish momentum indicators. On the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin maintains a healthy uptrend structure with its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) sitting comfortably above the 200-day EMA—a bullish signal that suggests the overall trend remains upward. However, momentum indicators tell a different story. The Squeeze momentum indicator is flashing bullish signals on both the four-hour and one-hour charts after a recovery from a small dip earlier in the day. On the other hand, the Average Directional Index (ADX) reads just 13 on the four-hour chart and 17 on the one-hour chart—both well below the 25 threshold that typically indicates a strong trending market.

The Squeeze indicator's behavior across timeframes is particularly intriguing. On the four-hour chart, it shows "on," indicating a period of price consolidation. However, the one-hour chart tells a different story with the Squeeze off under bullish impulse. This divergence often precedes sharp directional moves, though predicting the direction requires careful analysis of other factors. Fast-paced markets usually have more noise and volatility, and the changes in trends usually appear first on these charts before they can be confirmed on longer-term sessions.

When Bitcoin is losing steam, making short-term predictions is difficult. Based solely on the charts, the probability of Bitcoin closing above $109,000 by the July 11 deadline appears to be moderately low—essentially a coin flip with a slight bearish tilt. With Bitcoin trading sideways, most indicators echo this uncertainty. Assuming the 200-EMA continues to act as support through July 12, the target price will end up sitting about halfway between the $109,000 target and overhead channel resistance. The four-hour pattern skews more bearish. If the current corrective phase persists and Bitcoin remains inside the triangle, prices could end below the target zone before spiking up to confirm a bullish trend.

Weak ADX values point to a lack of conviction, often a precursor to failed breakouts. Compounding this challenge is the confluence of resistance just overhead: the descending trendline, the psychological $109,000 level, and horizontal resistance at $109,717—all forming a formidable barrier. Absent clear accumulation above $109,000, the odds of a bullish close diminish with each passing hour. The last-hour recovery to this level pushes some bearish mood away, but still not enough to have comfortable confidence to call it a trend.

Beyond the charts, it is wise—especially in this case—to monitor fundamental catalysts that could sway sentiment. Renewed tariff rhetoric, a weakening dollar index, and a rotation out of high-beta assets into safer havens could all leave Bitcoin more vulnerable to sharp downside moves. The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.