Bitcoin Traders Eye June 27 Options Expiry Amid Bullish Sentiment

Bitcoin traders are closely monitoring the upcoming $20 billion monthly options expiry scheduled for June 27. Despite a 1.72% decline in Bitcoin's value over the past 30 days, traders who had used options to hedge against potential downside risks were already prepared for a more significant drop.

This recent price recovery presents a crucial opportunity for bulls to establish support at $105,000, a level that could be pivotal in the push towards a new all-time high in the coming weeks. Currently, the open interest for call (buy) options stands at $11.2 billion, compared to $8.8 billion for put (sell) options. Notably, $7.1 billion of those put options have strike prices at $101,000 or lower, indicating a significant shift in favor of bullish bets.

Some market observers attribute Bitcoin’s recent strength to a more dovish tone from the US Federal Reserve Chair. In his recent testimony, the Chair indicated that various paths are possible regarding interest rates, including the possibility of cutting rates sooner if inflation remains subdued. Other officials have also suggested that rate cuts could occur as early as the July policy meeting, citing recent data that suggest inflationary pressures are under control. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has reached its highest level in over four months.

Bitcoin bulls view these stock market gains as an early signal that investors currently in short-term government bonds may soon pivot toward riskier assets in search of higher returns. This thesis is reinforced as analysts project a modest 5% S&P 500 revenue growth for 2025. Therefore, even if central banks refrain from expanding the monetary base in the near term, declining yields on fixed income instruments could still fuel Bitcoin’s upward momentum. As the options’ expiry approaches, the most effective bearish scenario would require heightened uncertainty, stemming from a drop in hashrate or geopolitical instability.

Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure. Between $100,000 and $101,500, the result is balanced with $1.74 billion calls vs. $1.75 billion puts. Between $101,500 and $102,500, calls favor by $235 million with $1.86 billion calls vs. $1.62 billion puts. Between $102,500 and $104,500, calls favor by $750 million with $1.93 billion calls vs. $1.18 billion puts. Between $104,500 and $106,000, calls favor by $1.41 billion with $2.47 billion calls vs. $1.06 billion puts. Between $106,000 and $108,000, calls favor by $2.1 billion with $2.84 billion calls vs. $750 million puts.

To minimize losses, bears must force Bitcoin below $101,500 by June 27, a 5% decline from the current $107,300. On the other hand, bulls can strengthen their position by keeping the price above $106,000, potentially setting the stage for a July rally, especially if spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows persist.