Bitcoin Trader Sees 'New Lows' as US Dollar Reaches Highest Level Since Mid-2025

Bitcoin price is trading near $69,000, having closed March with a 1.81% gain and breaking its two consecutive monthly declines at the start of the year. The price remains within a consolidating range, showing a bearish bias despite some ETF inflows and easing tensions in the Middle East. Analysts continue to watch for signs of institutional support and favorable regulatory developments to confirm a potential recovery.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to enter an expansion phase after a period of accumulation, which could lead to new lows in risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks. Bitcoin trader BitBull highlights a classic market pattern of a downtrend followed by accumulation and then expansion. This suggests uncertainty in directional momentum and a potential for further downside pressure.

Investors have hedged Bitcoin with large put contracts, reflecting stronger bearish sentiment compared to ether. Deribit data shows over $1.5 billion in put contracts at $60,000, indicating a cautious outlook on risk assets. Analysts expect renewed volatility in April, especially if the anticipated ceasefire in the Middle East materializes, but macroeconomic uncertainties remain a concern.

What Are the Key Drivers of Bitcoin's Volatility in April?

Bitcoin's performance in April will be heavily influenced by macroeconomic developments, including oil prices, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. Analysts warn of mixed signals and suggest that institutional flows and geopolitical risks remain key factors. The March employment report and FOMC meetings will be closely monitored for further guidance on the Fed's stance.

Geopolitical tensions have also played a role in Bitcoin's price movements. U.S. President Donald Trump's escalation threats against Iran led to a 2.9% drop in Bitcoin's price to $66,465.7. However, the broader crypto market has shown some resilience, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a net inflow in March after months of outflows.

What Are the Risks to the Crypto Market in April?

The crypto sector experienced a significant increase in hacking incidents in March 2026, with $52 million lost across 20 major attacks. The largest incident involved ResolvLabs, where an AWS KMS breach led to a $25 million loss. These incidents highlight growing vulnerabilities and interconnected risks within the industry.

Bitcoin ETFs marked their first monthly inflow in March since October, logging a net inflow of $1.2 billion. However, this came as Bitcoin slumped as much as 50% from its October record high. The price remains within a consolidating range with a bearish bias, supported by ETF inflows and easing tensions in the Middle East. Analysts suggest cautious optimism for potential recovery if institutional inflows continue and regulatory developments become favorable.

What Are Analysts Watching for in the Coming Months?

Analyst Ion Jauregui from ActivTrades predicts Bitcoin could reach $110,000 in Q2 2026, driven by U.S. economic developments, growing institutional demand, and Federal Reserve policy dynamics. The BTC price is expected to consolidate initially in the $75,000 – $80,000 range, with potential upside toward $95,000 – $110,000. However, bearish pressure zones and support levels will need to be closely monitored for directional clarity.

Bitcoin's price is expected to remain volatile in April as macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments continue to influence risk appetite. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on key U.S. economic indicators, such as inflation and employment data, as well as geopolitical developments in the Middle East. These factors will likely shape the near-term trajectory of the crypto market.