Bitcoin Trader Bets on Big Price Swing Before March as Supreme Court Ruling Looms

A trader is betting on a major price swing in Bitcoin by the end of March, buying a long straddle options combination on Deribit. This move reflects a view of heightened volatility around an upcoming Supreme Court ruling. The ruling on Trump-era tariffs could have broad macroeconomic implications. With over $60 billion in Bitcoin open interest, the market is bracing for any surprises from the court.

The ruling, scheduled for Jan. 9, concerns whether the Trump administration's tariffs were legally imposed. Prediction markets show a 23-30% chance the government will win. The outcome could reshape import prices and inflation expectations. A surprise ruling in favor of the administration could lead to a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions.

Bitcoin options show little directional bias, but high volatility is possible after the ruling. Deribit's volatility index has risen slightly but remains near multi-month lows. The 25-delta call-put skew is mildly negative, indicating some preference for downside hedges. Open interest remains high at over $60 billion, suggesting leverage is already in place.

What Could Trigger a Big Move in Bitcoin?

A ruling upholding tariffs would surprise the market and reprice inflation assumptions. This could lead to a selloff in high-beta assets like Bitcoin. A ruling against the administration would likely confirm expectations, potentially boosting risk-on sentiment.

If the market has already priced in a "tariff strike down" scenario, Bitcoin may rally as positioning unwinds. However, if long positions are crowded, a "good news, sell the fact" scenario could occur.

How Are Derivatives Traders Preparing for the Ruling?

Deribit and SignalPlus's 2025 trading competition saw over $23 billion in notional volume, showing strong options participation. This growth highlights the increasing role of options as risk management tools.

A trader recently bought 3,000 BTC call options at a $100,000 strike, betting on a price rise by January 30. This $2.86 million bet reflects a bullish view on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory.

Deribit remains a key venue for large options trades, and strategic positioning is evident in the market. Analysts urge investors to monitor implied volatility and open interest around major macro events.

What Are Analysts Watching for Next Steps?

The current setup suggests Bitcoin is in a range where either ruling could produce a tradable move. However, neither outcome is so clearly priced in that the ruling becomes a non-event.

Market participants are watching how positioning and volatility interact post-ruling. If the market reacts strongly to either outcome, it could signal broader macroeconomic shifts.

Analysts highlight the importance of risk management tools as options trading grows. Deribit and SignalPlus plan to expand their collaboration in 2026, focusing on education and automated strategies.

The ruling won't reshape Bitcoin's long-term trajectory but could clarify which macroeconomic narrative dominates the next few weeks. Investors are advised to watch positioning and volatility metrics closely.