Bitcoin's Thanksgiving Rebound: A Strategic Entry Point Amid Easing Sell Pressure and Institutional Reentry

The Thanksgiving 2025 Bitcoin rebound has ignited a critical debate: is this a fleeting bounce in a bearish trend or a structural inflection point driven by institutional reentry? To answer this, we must dissect the interplay of market structure, on-chain dynamics, and macroeconomic sentiment. The data suggests a nuanced picture-while the broader market remains fragile, key indicators point to a potential low-risk entry window for strategic investors.

Market Structure: Thinning Liquidity and Critical Support Levels

Bitcoin's November 2025 price action reveals a market grappling with liquidity constraints. After a 35% drawdown from its October peak, the asset tested support levels as low as $80,000 on derivatives exchanges, exposing the fragility of order books post-geopolitical shocks. However, a well-defined order block between $88,400 and $91,500 provided a temporary floor, enabling a 4% intraday recovery to $93,500. This resilience, though modest, signals that institutional players are beginning to test the waters at these levels.

Order book depth metrics further clarify the landscape. Despite a 4.3% decline in BTC order book depth compared to the 7-day average, the $536.7 million liquidity pool at Thanksgiving 2025 suggests a partial stabilization. This contrasts with the "liquidity singularity" observed in early October, where even minor sell orders triggered outsized price declines. The narrowing gap between exchange premiums and the emergence of a neutral on-chain environment-marked by reduced exchange inflows and balanced buyer/seller pressure-indicates that the aggressive deleveraging phase may be waning.

Institutional Sentiment: Outflows vs. Accumulation

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows of $3.79 billion in November 2025, led by BlackRock's IBIT, underscored a broader risk-off sentiment driven by Federal Reserve uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Yet, these outflows mask a critical countertrend: institutional accumulation. Corporate entities, including MicroStrategy, Coinbase, and Hut 8, acquired 18,700 BTC in November alone, reflecting long-term strategic positioning rather than short-term trading. This duality-retail-driven ETF redemptions versus corporate hoarding-highlights a market at a crossroads.

The on-chain data reinforces this dichotomy. While the negative exchange premium gap suggests retail dominance, the 1.86 million BTC held by institutional entities as of November 2025 demonstrates a commitment to weathering the downturn. This accumulation, coupled with the stabilization of synthetic assets like USDe (which regained its dollar peg post-liquidation event), hints at a gradual reentry by sophisticated capital.

Strategic Entry Point: Balancing Risks and Opportunities

For investors, the Thanksgiving rebound presents a calculus of risk versus reward. The $95,000 support level remains a critical psychological barrier; a break below this could reignite the $80,000-$70,000 range as a new equilibrium. However, the convergence of institutional buying pressure and improving order book resilience suggests that this pullback may be a high-probability entry point for those with a medium-term horizon.

Macro factors, including the anticipated "tsunami of global liquidity" from central bank policies, further tilt the odds in favor of a December rebound. Tom Lee of BitMine has already flagged on-chain signals pointing to a potential 20% move higher, a thesis supported by the neutral-to-bullish shift in on-chain metrics.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

Bitcoin's Thanksgiving 2025 rebound is not a silver bullet but a symptom of a market in transition. The interplay of thinning liquidity, institutional accumulation, and macroeconomic tailwinds creates a scenario where disciplined investors can capitalize on volatility. While the path to $100,000 remains fraught with risks-particularly from Fed policy shifts-the current price action suggests that the worst of the deleveraging may be behind us. For those who can stomach the noise, this is a moment to "buy the dip," not just in theory, but in practice.