Bitcoin/Tether Market Overview: BTCUSDT Volatility Amid Diverging Turnover

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at $117,430.61 and closed at $116,394.72 after a choppy 24-hour session.
• Price declined by ~0.86%, with a 24-hour low of $116,133.66 and high of $117,900.0.
• Volume surged to over 3,600 BTC, but turnover fell amid a late-day breakdown.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $117,900, followed by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $116,488.
• RSI showed bearish momentum and MACD crossed below zero, hinting at short-term weakness.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at $117,430.61 and closed at $116,394.72 at 12:00 ET today, reaching a high of $117,900.0 and a low of $116,133.66. Total volume traded across the session was approximately 3,600 BTC, while notional turnover fell amid diverging price action in the final hours.

Structure and candlestick formations revealed a bearish engulfing pattern at $117,900, followed by a sharp pullback. Key support levels include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $116,488 and a psychological round level at $116,000. Resistance may now test at the 38.2% retracement at $117,738, which was previously rejected multiple times. A doji at $116,996 and a long lower shadow near the 24-hour low also suggest potential short-term equilibrium. These formations could signal a consolidation phase ahead.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover as the 20-period MA dipped below the 50-period MA during the late New York session. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price appears to be trending below key short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating a possible continuation of the downward momentum, though traders should watch for a potential bounce off critical supports.

MACD turned negative, crossing below zero in the final hours of the session, confirming the bearish shift. RSI dropped into oversold territory in the last hour, suggesting a short-term potential for a bounce, though without strong volume confirmation, it’s unclear if buyers will step in. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakdown at $116,500, indicating heightened volatility. Price is now trading closer to the lower band, which may provide near-term support if the bounce holds. These indicators suggest a cautious stance ahead of a potential reversal or further breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined involves a short-term trend-following approach using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart. The signal is triggered when the 20 MA crosses below the 50 MA, indicating a bearish bias, and closed when price closes above the 50 MA or a 5% stop-loss is hit. The strategy also incorporates RSI divergence to filter false signals—only trades are taken when RSI is in overbought territory and the MA crossover confirms the trend. Given the recent bearish crossover and RSI divergence, this setup could have entered a short position near $117,900 with a target near $116,400. If this pattern holds, it supports the current bearish bias and validates a potential exit point at the 61.8% retracement. The success of this strategy depends on maintaining a strict risk management framework to account for false breakouts and sudden volatility spikes.