Bitcoin/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from $107,767 to $102,511 on heavy selling in the final hours.
• Volume spiked during the 14:45–16:30 ET window, coinciding with sharp price decay.
• Overbought conditions from earlier faded as RSI dipped below 30, signaling oversold territory.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at $106,400 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of $107,767 before closing at $102,511 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $103,000. Total volume amounted to 12,955.56 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.36 billion.

The 15-minute chart reveals a clear bearish breakdown. Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $107,080 and later a bearish harami pattern at $106,650, both suggesting momentum turning against bulls. Key support levels appear to form around the $104,000–$105,000 range, while resistance is evident at $106,600–$107,200. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below price, signaling short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are converging, with price currently below both, suggesting intermediate-term bearish momentum.

Volatility expanded dramatically after 14:45 ET, as a large candle at $103,929.42 opened on a high of $104,037 and closed at $103,904.54, while the following 15-minute candles continued downward. Price touched the lower Bollinger Band (around $103,185) near the end of the session, indicating extreme bearish pressure. MACD turned negative and the histogram showed bearish divergence. RSI fell below 30 during the final hours, suggesting oversold conditions that may attract short-term buyers.

Fibonacci retracements from the $106,400–$107,767 swing suggest key levels at 38.2% ($106,600), 50% ($107,084), and 61.8% ($107,568) for potential resistance. On the daily chart, the $104,249.19 low could act as near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy uses daily OHLC data to generate signals based on a dynamic support break, represented by price falling below the 50-day SMA. This is paired with MACD and RSI indicators, with default risk controls including a 15% stop-loss, 30% take-profit, and 90-day maximum holding period. The strategy’s performance over the 3-year period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 aims to validate the effectiveness of using dynamic support as a sell trigger in conjunction with momentum indicators. The dashboard includes trade-level details and equity curves, offering a data-driven framework for evaluating entry and exit logic against Bitcoin’s historically volatile trend.