Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-11-13

Summary
• Bitcoin opened at $101,801.61 and closed at $101,382.64 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price hit a high of $103,472.52 before retracting to a low of $100,715.31, showing strong intraday swings.
• Volume and turnover were elevated, with 5,553.7 BTC traded and $594.7 million in turnover.

Opening at $101,801.61 and closing at $101,382.64, Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) experienced a wide range of $103,472.52 to $100,715.31 over the 24-hour window. The pair traded with a total volume of 5,553.7 BTC and a notional turnover of $594.7 million.

The structure of the price action revealed multiple key support and resistance clusters during the session. A significant resistance level appears around $102,600–103,000, which was tested multiple times during the day, notably at $102,649.43 and $103,079.31. Below, a strong support zone developed between $101,500 and $101,184.15, which held on the final hours of the session. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern around $103,079.31 and a doji near $102,874.80, indicating indecision and potential reversal signals.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, signaling a short-term negative bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, which could be interpreted as a bearish signal for the intermediate term. Meanwhile, the 200-period MA remained well above the current price, suggesting the broader trend remains bullish. On the RSI, Bitcoin entered overbought territory during the rally to $103,472.52, but later fell below 50, indicating weakening momentum. The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the morning, followed by a weak positive divergence in the afternoon, hinting at potential short-term rebounds.

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply as price moved between $100,715.31 and $103,472.52, signaling increased volatility. Price frequently tested the upper and lower bands, with the most significant rejections occurring near $103,000 and $101,500. The midline of the bands trended lower, aligning with the broader bearish bias. Volume spiked during key price reversals, particularly after the high at $103,472.52 and the low at $100,715.31, indicating strong participation during critical turning points.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the intraday swing from $100,715.31 to $103,472.52 identified key levels for potential support and resistance. The 38.2% retracement at $102,499 and the 61.8% at $101,896 were both tested during the day, with the 61.8% level proving more resilient. For the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the longer-term bullish move from $100,000 to $103,500 was near $101,750, which held as a key psychological level in the afternoon.

Looking ahead, the market appears caught in a tug-of-war between short-term bearish momentum and underlying bullish fundamentals. The key to the next 24 hours may rest on whether the $101,500 support level holds and whether a bearish MACD crossover leads to a break below $101,000. Investors should remain cautious and watch for divergence in volume and momentum as the price consolidates.

Backtest Hypothesis
The MACD "death-cross" event study on Bitcoin since 2022 reveals a mixed historical performance. While the immediate return after a death-cross signal tends to be negative, with an average of -0.7% in the first week, the market often recovers by the second week and modestly outperforms over ~22 days. However, none of these outcomes are statistically significant at the 95% level. In this 24-hour session, a bearish MACD crossover occurred early in the morning, and the price dropped accordingly. The strategy of fading the initial weakness—buying into dips with a 5–7 day horizon—might be more promising than outright shorting. Given the observed pattern, a fade approach could be worth backtesting with tighter entry filters and risk management. Investors should consider combining the MACD signal with additional indicators, such as RSI divergence or volume confirmation, to improve trade selection.