Bitcoin Tests $110,000 Resistance, Eyes $120,000 Peak

Bitcoin has been making significant strides, with analysts and financial institutions predicting substantial growth in the near future. The cryptocurrency tested the $110,000 resistance mark in early third quarter 2025, with analysts cautioning that surpassing this level might propel prices to $120,000, though volatility is expected. Standard Chartered predicts a peak at $120,000 during August-September. However, experts warn of a potential pullback to $88,000 if Bitcoin closes below $100,000.

Despite the calm summer months, macroeconomic developments are poised to influence market direction in the third quarter. Historically, Bitcoin’s peak is projected to occur between the 525th and 546th days post-halving, around mid-October. Analysts stress that tight global liquidity and high interest rates might limit guidance from previous cycles. In the short term, the $100,000 level is critical. If the price sustains above this mark, it could fuel a bullish scenario. Conversely, a downward break may activate buyers around the $88,000 region. Analysts believe that sudden price drops could present buying opportunities, particularly for institutional investors.

Standard Chartered supports this outlook, proposing that if institutional demand and ETF entries persist, Bitcoin could rise to $120,000 by the August-September period. Such an increase is anticipated to bolster market confidence. The increase in global M2 money supply since the beginning of the year has been limited compared to the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. However, expectations for interest rate cuts are growing. The Federal Reserve has a 25% probability of reducing rates by 25 basis points in July and a 71% likelihood in September. If liquidity increases, trading volumes and prices of both Bitcoin and altcoins are expected to rise.

Currently, the Crypto Altcoin Season Index stands at 23, indicating low investor interest in this sector. Yet, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance is nearing $115 billion, gradually approaching the $175 billion peak of 2021. Despite Bitcoin’s market dominance, Ethereum is tightly bound around $2,500, with historical data suggesting a potential average return of 24% in the fourth quarter, keeping hopes alive for a general altcoin rally. On the altcoin front, while the TVL is rising, prices lag behind, creating what analysts term a “silent strength.” Experts anticipate significant double-digit gains in smart contract altcoins, assuming Bitcoin’s dominance loosens.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are expected to see significant growth by 2025, driven by regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and technological advancements. Several crypto-centric stocks are emerging as potential growth opportunities. These companies are well-positioned to benefit from the increasing mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies, which is expected to drive their stock prices higher. Bitwise Asset Management predicts that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will reach new all-time highs by 2025. This forecast is supported by the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in various sectors, including finance and technology. The average price of Bitcoin is expected to be around $125,027 in 2025, with the potential to reach $266,129 by 2030. This bullish outlook is fueled by mainstream adoption and regulatory developments that are making cryptocurrencies more accessible and secure.

The first half of 2025 saw a significant surge in corporate Bitcoin holdings, with public companies outpacing Bitcoin spot ETF issuers in accumulating the cryptocurrency. This trend indicates a growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. The increasing demand for Bitcoin ETFs is also contributing to its price surge, with Bitcoin starting 2025 with a historic milestone of surpassing $100,000. The digital asset landscape is evolving rapidly, with a shift from speculation toward institutional-scale adoption. Circle's landmark IPO in June 2025 signaled rising confidence in the crypto capital market's maturity. The IPO was priced at $31, well above its initial guidance range, and raised $1.05 billion. By month-end, Circle's stock surged to $180, lifting its market cap to $40 billion. This success positions Circle as a leader in the crypto industry and sets a precedent for other companies to follow.

Real-World Assets (RWAs) are solidifying their position as one of the fastest-growing sectors in crypto. Excluding stablecoins, the on-chain RWA market cap soared past $23 billion, marking an 85%+ year-to-date gain. When stablecoins are included, the tokenized real-world asset market exceeds $200 billion in size. Ethereum continues to dominate the RWA space, holding a 59% market share. The surge in RWAs is backed by decisive regulatory momentum, with the U.S. Senate passing the GENIUS Act, which provides regulatory clarity for dollar-backed stablecoins and RWA instruments. In Europe, MiCA regulations went into full effect in December 2024, and Asia followed with sandbox environments designed to test and scale tokenization infrastructure.

The role of stablecoins is evolving from trading and speculation toward payments. Stablecoin issuance rebounded in June after several months of stagnation, rising to $5 billion. This reversal preserved the structural integrity of the current bull cycle, ensuring continued liquidity and capital depth within crypto markets. However, ongoing monitoring is needed to refine the interpretation of stablecoin metrics in the current cycle. As July 2025 begins, crypto markets face a mix of opportunity and risk. While the Iran-Israel ceasefire has eased geopolitical tensions, inflation, tariffs, and macro uncertainty persist. Bitcoin remains technically strong near its range high, but a failed breakout could retest $105,000. With BTC dominance holding firm, an altseason appears unlikely for now. Institutional momentum, from rising ETF flows to Circle’s IPO, reflects growing confidence in foundational crypto infrastructure. At the same time, the rapid rise of RWAs and global regulatory milestones signal a shift toward a more mature, policy-aligned market. July may prove pivotal as capital rotates toward utility, compliance, and real-world use cases.

Approximately 45% of Bitcoin's supply has remained untouched for over three years, indicating long-term holders' patience amidst market fluctuations. This resilience suggests that Bitcoin's value proposition remains strong, even in the face of market volatility. The recent CPI data could be the catalyst that propels Bitcoin to new heights, according to Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist. The increasing global risk appetite, driven by factors such as the ceasefire, is also contributing to Bitcoin's price recovery. The cryptocurrency has seen a nearly 7% increase this week, remaining just inches away from its record levels.