Bitcoin’s Technical and On-Chain Case for a Multi-Month Rally: A Strategic Entry Point in September 2025

Bitcoin’s price action in September 2025 has painted a nuanced picture of resilience amid volatility. While the asset faces bearish momentum from technical indicators like the MACD, its proximity to oversold conditions and institutional accumulation patterns suggest a compelling case for a multi-month upward trend. For investors seeking entry points, the interplay between price, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic factors offers a roadmap to navigate the current market dynamics.

Technical Indicators: A Tug-of-War Between Bearish Momentum and Oversold Conditions

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 41.40, nearing the oversold threshold of 30 [4]. Historically, this level has acted as a psychological floor, often triggering rebounds after extended declines. The RSI’s divergence from the price—where the indicator has fallen faster than the asset—suggests weakening bearish conviction. Meanwhile, the MACD remains bearish, with its histogram deep in negative territory and the line trending downward [3]. This signals short-term selling pressure, but the key question is whether Bitcoin can stabilize above critical support levels to reverse the trend.

Price consolidation near $108,000 has drawn attention to two pivotal support zones: $104,000 and the psychological $100,000 level [1]. These levels are reinforced by the 200-day moving average and Fibonacci retracement levels from earlier uptrends. A successful defense of $107,500 would likely trigger a rebound toward $112,500, with a potential rally to $120,000 if the $112,000–$115,000 range is breached [3]. Analysts caution that failure to hold $100,000 could extend the correction, but the RSI’s proximity to oversold conditions implies a temporary floor is forming.

On-Chain Metrics: Undervaluation and Institutional Accumulation

Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio of 1.51 as of August 2025 [1] underscores a market undervalued relative to its transactional utility. This metric, which compares market cap to on-chain transaction volume, historically signals buying opportunities when below the overvaluation threshold of 2.2. The adjusted NVT ratio of 74.6 further reinforces this narrative, indicating that Bitcoin’s valuation is driven by real economic activity rather than speculative fervor [4].

Institutional activity has also shifted the on-chain landscape. Over 1.3 million BTC are now held in ETF-related custodial wallets, reflecting sustained demand from large investors [1]. Exchange reserves have dropped to 2.1 million BTC, a 20% decline from 2024, tightening supply and creating a bullish backdrop [2]. Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score—a measure of market value relative to realized value—approaches 3.5, signaling an overbought condition and hinting at a potential correction [2]. However, this metric often precedes sharp rebounds, as seen in prior cycles.

Strategic Entry Point: Balancing Risks and Rewards

While September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin (average loss of 3.5%) [4], the current environment differs due to macroeconomic tailwinds and institutional adoption. ETF outflows in August contributed to the bearish momentum [3], but Ethereum’s outperformance (25% gain vs. Bitcoin’s 6% drop) highlights a shift in capital allocation [2]. This divergence suggests Bitcoin’s role as a store of value is being tested, but its institutional appeal remains intact.

For investors, the key is to position for a potential rebound in October and November, as technical indicators and on-chain data align with a multi-month rally. A breakout above $112,500 would validate the bullish case, while a failure to hold $100,000 would necessitate a reassessment. Given the RSI’s proximity to oversold levels and the NVT ratio’s undervaluation signal, September 2025 presents a strategic entry point for those willing to navigate short-term volatility.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s technical and on-chain fundamentals suggest a market at a critical inflection point. While bearish momentum persists, the confluence of oversold conditions, institutional accumulation, and undervaluation metrics creates a compelling case for a near-term rebound. Investors who act now may position themselves to capitalize on a potential multi-month upward trend, provided key support levels hold and macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.

**Source:[1] Bitcoin’s Deep Discount to Fair Value: A Strategic Entry Point for Long-Term Investors [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604936822][2] 6 Key Bitcoin On-Chain Trends in June 2025 [https://medium.com/@whatexchange/6-key-bitcoin-on-chain-trends-in-june-2025-f2fd2cbf5a79][3] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: ETF Outflows Signal Investor Caution for September [https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-etf-outflows-signal-investor-caution-for-september/][4] Bitcoin Nears Oversold Territory as Analysts Look for September Rebound [https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/d1265-btc-price-analysis-oversold-signal-points-to-september-rebound]