Bitcoin Targets $170,000 as Global Liquidity Hits Record High

Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to reach a price target of $170,000 as the global M2 money supply hits a record high of $55.48 trillion on July 2. This significant milestone in liquidity, which aggregates US dollar-adjusted liquidity from major economies, suggests a potential surge in capital flowing into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Historically, Bitcoin has followed global and US M2 supply with a lag of 3–6 months, especially during periods of liquidity shifts. In some instances, such as the April 2025 breakout above $100,000, the lag was as short as 1–2 weeks. This pattern indicates that Bitcoin's price movements are closely tied to the broader economic liquidity trends.

While Bitcoin has experienced rallies during periods of low M2 growth, these moves often prove unsustainable. In contrast, M2-driven rallies tend to produce longer, more stable uptrends. This suggests that the current cycle may be supported by real liquidity rather than speculative activity. Analyst Crypto Auris notes, “As global money supply expands, Bitcoin’s next target sits around ~$170K, following the flow.”

Multiple analysts have predicted that the BTC price could reach the $150,000-200,000 range by the end of 2025, driven by rising liquidity and other factors. The weakening US dollar further supports this bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst H1 performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973.

In contrast to the weakening dollar, Bitcoin gained 13.25% in the same period, reflecting a negative correlation with the dollar. Historically, major divergences between Bitcoin and the dollar have signaled key trend reversals. For instance, in April 2018 and March 2022, rising DXY and falling BTC preceded bear markets. Conversely, the divergence in November 2020 marked the start of a major rally.

In the current cycle, BTC and DXY have moved almost in lockstep until early 2024. A clear divergence began in April 2025, as DXY fell below 100 for the first time in two years. If past patterns repeat, this could mark the beginning of a new Bitcoin uptrend. Prolonged dollar weakness could amplify this move beyond Bitcoin’s typical cycle behavior, potentially driving the price towards the $170,000 target.