Bitcoin Targets $135,000 as Dollar Slumps 11% Year-to-Date

Analysts have set a price target of $135,000 for Bitcoin, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic factors and technical analysis. The slumping US dollar and record global liquidity are creating a favorable environment for the cryptocurrency. According to the analyst's forecast, Todd Gordon projects this target based on a 100% Fibonacci extension, suggesting a sustained bullish trend. This projection aligns with historical trends and technical indicators, which point to a potential range between $95,000 and $135,000 by the end of 2026, assuming no major regulatory roadblocks.

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, which has seen it climb more than 8% since Monday, is attributed to geopolitical developments and market sentiment. The symbolic Iran retaliation against US strikes was viewed as the last attack before de-escalation, leading to a rally that extended further after Trump confirmed the end of the conflict. The expansionary fiscal policies and impending rate cuts are expected to continue driving the market upward, despite potential short-term pullbacks due to hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed a bullish flag, with the target generally projected around the $135,000 level. This target is based on the rally since April 9 tariff pause, with a more conservative estimate of $125,000 having higher probabilities. The 1-hour chart shows that the bullish momentum is waning around the key resistance at the $107,000 level. Buyers will need a break above this resistance to increase bullish bets into the $109,000 level, where the upper bound of the flag is located. Sellers, on the other hand, are likely to step in around these levels, positioning for a drop back into the lower bound of the flag around the $100,000 level.

The minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum suggests that a break to the downside could give sellers more conviction to pile in for a drop. However, dip-buyers will still have minor support around the swing low at $104,750. The $170,000 price point by early 2026 aligns with historical correlations to global M2 expansion, with analyst estimates across leading desks projecting a 30–60% rise. This projection, along with the $135,000 Fibonacci target, indicates continued bullish sentiment for Bitcoin.

As the United States dollar slumps to a three-year low and long-term holders tighten their grip on the Bitcoin supply, market conditions appear primed for a new leg up. With Bitcoin holding firm above the $107,000 mark, analysts are pointing to a powerful convergence of macroeconomic weakness and strong on-chain fundamentals that could fuel a rally toward $135,000 and beyond.

According to crypto analyst Lark Davis, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has just slumped to a three-year low, down 11% year-to-date. Simultaneously, global M2 money supply–essentially the total liquidity in the economy–has hit fresh all-time highs. Historically, this environment of abundant liquidity and a weak dollar has been a key driver for Bitcoin rallies. Simply put: more money, lower fiat value, and higher appetite for alternative stores of value.

On-chain analyst Darkfost shared data showing a historic surge in long-term held (LTH) Bitcoin supply—coins that haven’t moved in over 6 months. These holdings have entered the LTH category in the $95,000–$107,000 range, a significant psychological and structural level. This marks only the sixth time in Bitcoin’s history we’ve seen such strong commitment to holding at these price levels, noting that the designation “LTH” may be better understood as “coin age” rather than addresses. The shift in behavior confirms that large cohorts of investors are not planning to sell, even as Bitcoin flirts with all-time highs.