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Bitcoin Surpasses $112K as On-Chain Metrics Signal Resilient Market Balance
Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Monday, Sep 29, 2025 5:03 am ET2min read
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Bitcoin surged past the $112,000 threshold early Monday, signaling a potential recovery after a volatile week marked by significant liquidation events[1]. The cryptocurrency briefly hit a 24-hour high of $112,293, surpassing $112,000 for the first time since a sharp decline earlier in the week[1]. Despite this rebound, the market remains in a period of consolidation, with analysts emphasizing that the bull market is not over. XWIN Research Japan highlighted that on-chain metrics, including the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and long-term holder behavior, suggest resilience. The MVRV ratio has dropped to 2, indicating that the current price is roughly double the average cost basis of holders, a level historically associated with neither panic nor euphoria[1]. This dynamic implies that investors are still holding healthy gains, with the market cooling from previous overheated conditions[1].
The recent volatility included two major liquidation events, wiping out over $4 billion in crypto long positions within seven days[1]. A $1.62 billion liquidation on Monday alone underscored the market's fragility, yet Bitcoin's ability to stabilize above $112,000 demonstrated underlying strength[4]. New investor demand also emerged, with over 73,000 BTC entering newly created wallets, suggesting increased participation[4]. Short-term holders added 159,000 BTC, absorbing coins sold by long-term investors, a pattern typical of bull market profit-taking[4]. This absorption of supply, combined with reduced profit-taking by long-term holders, has created conditions for renewed demand to push prices higher[1].
Technical analysis reinforces the bullish narrative. Bitcoin's 50-day and 200-day moving averages formed a golden cross, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below overbought levels, indicating healthy buying pressure[3]. Key resistance levels are now at $118,000 and $120,000, with a successful breakout potentially opening the door to $125,000–$130,000[3]. Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity have further bolstered sentiment, with Fortune 500 companies and clearer SEC guidelines driving confidence[3]. However, risks persist, including macroeconomic uncertainties and potential regulatory shifts in major markets[3].
Glassnode data highlights late-cycle concerns, noting that Bitcoin's circulating supply has remained above the +1 standard deviation profit range for 273 days—the second-longest streak on record[4]. This suggests heightened selling pressure, as long-term holders have already realized substantial gains. Historical patterns, however, indicate that cycles similar to the current one have often culminated in new all-time highs within two to three months[4]. If this trend repeats,
could breach its previous record of $124,000 by year-end[4].Market structure reveals mixed signals. While new demand absorption and technical consolidation hint at a potential upward trajectory, on-chain data shows fragile balance, with selling pressure still dominant[4]. Exchange inflows remain elevated, and the current rally is driven more by retail and small institutional buyers than large whales[4]. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin's network fundamentals, including record-high on-chain activity in 2025, provide a robust foundation for long-term growth[4].
The immediate outlook hinges on Bitcoin's ability to hold key support levels. A retest of $113,000 could validate the current consolidation phase, paving the way for a renewed rally. Conversely, a breakdown below $105,000–$106,000 could trigger deeper corrections[4]. Analysts caution that while the bull market remains intact, investors should remain cautious given the asset's inherent volatility and the potential for regulatory or macroeconomic shocks[3]. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether this consolidation sets the stage for another leg higher or exposes vulnerabilities in the current cycle.
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