Bitcoin Surges 9% Weekly, Breaks $120,000 Mark

Bitcoin has experienced a notable 9% weekly surge, indicating a robust breakout driven by strong momentum indicators and renewed investor confidence. This rally marks Bitcoin’s strongest weekly performance since May, breaking past key resistance levels and entering new price discovery territory above $120,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbing to 72 reflects growing bullish sentiment, while prediction markets show a 91% chance Bitcoin stays above $100K in July.

Bitcoin’s price action this past week demonstrated a decisive breakout from a prolonged consolidation phase, with prices climbing from approximately $109,231 to over $119,000, culminating in a new all-time high surpassing $123,000. This strong weekly gain is supported by key technical indicators that suggest sustained buying pressure rather than short-term speculation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart stands at 71, entering overbought territory but consistent with a powerful bull market where assets can remain overbought for extended periods. Additionally, the Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 27 confirms a well-established trend, indicating that Bitcoin’s rally has transitioned from a developing to a confirmed strong trend.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has surged to 72, firmly placing market sentiment in the “greed” category. This shift reflects renewed investor confidence amid accelerating institutional adoption of digital assets. Prediction markets, such as Myriad, reinforce this optimism, with users assigning a 91% probability that Bitcoin will remain above $100,000 throughout July. Furthermore, there is a 76% chance that Bitcoin will reach $125,000 before potentially retracing to $105,000. These metrics highlight a market increasingly confident in Bitcoin’s near-term prospects, although some caution remains regarding closing above $122,000 this week, where odds drop to 40%.

Bitcoin’s recent performance unfolds against a backdrop of complex macroeconomic factors. Commodity prices, such as West Texas Intermediate crude oil trading near $67 per barrel and gold maintaining levels above $3,300 per ounce, suggest persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. These conditions historically drive interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s proximity to record highs near 6,259 points indicates a healthy risk appetite in traditional markets, fostering an environment conducive to Bitcoin’s breakout. This cross-asset strength positions Bitcoin as both a growth asset and a portfolio diversifier amid evolving market dynamics.

Weekly charts provide multiple confirmations of Bitcoin’s bullish trend. The 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains well above the 200-week EMA, a classic indicator of sustained upward momentum. The expanding gap between these EMAs throughout the week signals accelerating buying pressure. Additionally, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator has shifted to an “off” status, indicating the end of a volatility compression phase and validating the recent breakout as a genuine trend acceleration rather than a false move. This technical setup suggests that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory is supported by strong fundamentals and market structure.

With Bitcoin entering a price discovery phase, traditional charting tools like Fibonacci extensions provide potential upside targets. Key resistance levels are identified at approximately $126,554 and $134,371, representing natural price barriers if the current momentum persists. Support levels are more clearly defined, with immediate support near $115,575 and stronger backing around $110,500, aligning with previous resistance turned support. Volume profiles indicate significant accumulation between $90,000 and $110,000, forming a solid foundation for continued gains. Above $120,000, thinner volume suggests less resistance, potentially facilitating further price appreciation.

Traders should monitor weekly ADX levels to ensure they remain above 25, confirming trend continuation, and watch for any RSI divergence as it approaches the 80 mark, which could signal weakening momentum. It is prudent to consider stop-loss orders near previous all-time highs, adjusting them upward in line with new price spikes to protect gains. Given the historical tendency for price corrections following new highs, disciplined risk management remains essential. Taking partial profits at strategic points can safeguard capital while allowing participation in further upside.

Bitcoin’s recent 9% weekly surge represents a significant technical breakout supported by strong momentum indicators and positive institutional sentiment. The convergence of bullish chart patterns, macroeconomic factors, and market psychology suggests a favorable environment for continued price appreciation. While Fibonacci extensions provide potential upside targets above $126,000, traders should remain vigilant for signs of overextension and manage risk accordingly. Overall, Bitcoin’s performance underscores its evolving role as a key asset within diversified portfolios, warranting close attention as it navigates new price discovery territory.