Bitcoin Surges 9% After Trump's Tariff Pause, Eyes $100,000

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant rebound following the announcement by US President Donald Trump that tariffs for non-retaliating countries would be paused. This development reignited bullish sentiment in the market, raising hopes that Bitcoin could surge towards the $100,000 mark.

On April 9, the BTC/USD pair surged by approximately 9%, reversing most of the losses it had incurred earlier in the week. This surge brought the pair close to validating a falling wedge pattern that had been forming on its daily chart since December 2024. A falling wedge pattern occurs when the price trends lower within a range defined by two converging, descending trendlines. In an ideal scenario, the price breaks decisively above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines.

As of April 9, Bitcoin’s price was confined within the falling wedge range, eyeing a breakout above its upper trendline at around $83,000. If this breakout is confirmed, Bitcoin’s main upside target by June could be around $100,000. Conversely, a rejection from the upper trendline could increase the likelihood of Bitcoin retreating deeper within the wedge pattern, potentially sliding toward the apex near $71,100. If a breakout occurs after testing the $71,100 level, the most conservative upside target for BTC could still be as high as $91,500.

Onchain data supports the outlook of Bitcoin reaching $100,000. Bitcoin’s rebound appears just before testing a critical onchain support zone between $65,000 and $71,000, reinforcing the cryptocurrency’s bullish outlook toward the $100,000 mark. The $65,000-71,000 range is based on two important Bitcoin metrics—active realized price ($71,000) and the true market mean ($65,000). These metrics estimate the average price at which current, active investors bought their Bitcoin, filtering out coins that haven't moved in a long time or are likely lost, giving a relatively accurate picture of the cost basis for those still participating in the market.

In the past, Bitcoin has spent about half the time trading above this price range and half below, making it a good indicator of whether the market is feeling positive or negative. According to analysts, “We now have confluence across several onchain price models, highlighting the $65k to $71k price range as a critical area of interest for the bulls to establish long-term support.” They added, “Should price trade meaningfully below this range, a super-majority of active investors would be underwater on their holdings, with likely negative impacts on aggregate sentiment to follow.”

Breaking below the $65,000-71,000 range could worsen Bitcoin’s probability of retesting $100,000 anytime soon. Such declines would also lead to the price breaking below its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA). The 50-week EMA—near $77,760 as of April 9—has historically acted as a dynamic support during bull markets and a resistance during bear markets, making it a crucial trend-defining level. Losing this support could open the door for a steeper pullback toward the 200-week EMA at around $50,000. Previous breakdowns below the 50-week EMA have resulted in similar declines, namely during the 2021-2022 and 2019-2020 bear cycles. A rebound, on the other hand, raises the likelihood of a $100,000 retest.