Bitcoin Surges 8% on Bullish Pattern and Geopolitical Calm

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant bullish trend, with a technical pattern that has historically proven to be highly reliable. This pattern, known as a bullish engulfing formation, has shown a 78% success rate since 2021, indicating a strong likelihood of reaching new highs. The pattern is characterized by a candle that absorbs at least the two preceding candles, emerging at the end of a corrective phase, and confirming a trend reversal with a clear structure break in subsequent sessions.

Recent geopolitical events, such as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, have also contributed to the formation of this pattern. Bitcoin, which had dropped below $100,000 during the tensions, quickly rebounded to around $108,000 once the ceasefire was confirmed. This technical setup aligns well with the current bullish market environment, unlike the unsuccessful attempts observed during the 2022 bear market.

The fundamental structure of the bitcoin market shows striking similarities with that of late 2022. Liquidity levels have returned to those of December 2022, a period that preceded a doubling of the price in just three months. Since the November 2022 low of $16,800, bitcoin has attracted more than $544 billion in net inflows, bringing the realized market capitalization to a record level of $944 billion. This development reflects bitcoin’s growing maturity as a macroeconomic asset, with institutional flows, notably through spot ETFs, continuing to support this momentum.

On June 24, American Bitcoin ETFs recorded $588.5 million in inflows, illustrating the persistent appetite of institutional investors. The current macroeconomic environment reinforces this trend, with the possibility of rate cuts “sooner than expected” if inflation remains moderate. This prospect of monetary easing could favor a capital rotation towards growth assets like bitcoin.

The expiration of $20 billion in Bitcoin options on June 27 adds an immediate strategic dimension. With $11.2 billion in call options versus $8.8 billion in put options, buyers hold a theoretical advantage of $2.1 billion if BTC remains above $106,000. This technical setup relies on solid fundamentals, with institutional adoption continuing as companies like Strategy and Metaplanet strengthen their Bitcoin reserves.

The alignment of technical and fundamental factors outlines a favorable scenario for bitcoin. With a proven predictive model and favorable liquidity conditions, the queen of cryptos appears poised to surpass new thresholds before a potential retest of $100,000. Maintaining above $105,000 for two consecutive days signals a potential market structure change, further supporting the bullish outlook.