Bitcoin Surges 8.8% to New All-Time High of $118,000

Bitcoin has surged past the $118,000 mark, achieving a new all-time high. This significant milestone has sparked optimism among crypto analysts, with Virtual Bacon, a prominent figure in the field, declaring the start of a major bull cycle. However, he cautions that the altcoin season, often referred to as altseason, has not yet been confirmed.

Over the past week, Bitcoin has seen an 8.8% increase, with a nearly 10% jump this month alone. This breakout is seen as a strong bullish signal, indicating the beginning of a new bull market. Historically, Bitcoin tends to lead during the early phases of bull markets, with altcoins following as liquidity shifts. Virtual Bacon emphasizes that Bitcoin's current support levels, including the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86,982 and the 20-week SMA at $96,719, are crucial for maintaining this upward momentum.

While Bitcoin's dominance currently stands at 64.58%, down from 65.50% on July 1, this slight decrease is a positive sign. Altseason typically begins after a sustained fall in Bitcoin's dominance. Early indicators, such as Ethereum's price against Bitcoin jumping 10.53% this month and the ETH/BTC ratio trading at 0.02516, suggest a potential breakout. However, a strong weekly close above 0.024 is needed to confirm this trend. From July 5 to 10, ETH/BTC surged by 9.49%, although it saw a minor correction of 1.08% afterward. The strength in Ethereum and Solana is encouraging, but not yet a confirmation of full altcoin rotation.

A major factor supporting the crypto rally is the Federal Reserve's quiet liquidity injection. Virtual Bacon highlights two significant moves: an $11 billion repo injection on June 30 and a proposal to reduce the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for large banks. These actions boost bank reserves and allow for more lending, increasing liquidity in the broader financial system. Additionally, the Global Liquidity Index is making a higher low. If it breaks above its April and September 2024 highs, it could confirm expanding liquidity—another condition needed for altseason. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 17, with reports suggesting a 64% chance of a rate cut in Q4 2025, which could further fuel crypto momentum.

While Bitcoin's breakout is undeniable and the early signs for altcoins are positive, Virtual Bacon advises caution. A confirmed altseason requires a sustained drop in Bitcoin's dominance, a breakout in ETH/BTC, and full expansion in global liquidity. Investors are advised to avoid jumping into low-cap altcoins prematurely. Instead, focus on large-cap coins showing early strength and wait for more macro confirmation.