Bitcoin Surges 8.27% on Trump Tariff Pause, Inflation Drop

On 09 April, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, which triggered an 8.27% single-day surge in Bitcoin [BTC] – Its longest green candlestick in nearly a month. The following day, on 10 April, U.S. core CPI inflation fell below 3.0% for the first time since March 2021. In response, Bitcoin surged by 3.36% to $82,532 at press time. These back-to-back macro boosts seemed to be gaining momentum in the market. However, a real test might lie ahead.

Short-Term Holders (STHs) have been feeling the pressure, as their realized price stood at $93k at press time – Far above BTC’s level. If the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts, will STHs hold firm? Or will mounting resistance force them to capitulate?

Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) supply is approaching a crucial inflection point. On 10 February, STH-held BTC peaked at a four-year high of 400k. However, it has since declined to 360k, signaling net distribution. This coincided with the world’s largest cryptocurrency breaching three key support levels – A sign of the sustained sell-side pressure from this cohort. On-chain data revealed that the bulk of these holdings were accumulated around $93k. With BTC trading below this realized price, approximately 360k BTC remains in an unrealized loss state, heightening the risk of capitulation.

More critically, the STH realized price sat at $131k and $72k, defining the critical liquidity zones. If Bitcoin retraces to the lower band at $72k, profit margins for these holders would erode by 22%, placing additional stress on short-term conviction. Historically, a breach of the lower band has catalyzed forced liquidations. Should Bitcoin sustain a move below $72k, cascading sell pressure could materialize, amplifying drawdowns. Conversely, reclaiming $93k would flip STH’s positioning back into profit, potentially mitigating supply-side risk and reviving bullish momentum.

From a macro-structural standpoint, Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below the pivotal $85k resistance level. Repeated rejections at this threshold indicate a liquidity zone that, if breached, could trigger a cascade of short liquidations. Concurrently, Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) slipped below its early March baseline – Signaling a sustained deleveraging phase. Futures traders remain risk-averse, with a noticeable reduction in high-leverage positioning. Despite these challenges, however, Bitcoin has demonstrated some resilience. Following the tariff-related market turbulence, BTC’s market cap saw only a $90 billion drawdown – A relatively modest flush-out compared to other risk assets.

However, with the Federal Reserve less likely to cut interest rates soon, macro uncertainty could push short-term holders to exit. Many of them bought around $93k. And, if the price doesn’t recover soon, they may sell to avoid deeper losses. With fear still high, speculative demand low, and key resistance levels overhead, a dip to $72k remains a real possibility before Bitcoin can attempt a sustained breakout.