Bitcoin Surges 7% to $82,350 on Trump Tariff Pause

Bitcoin experienced a notable short-term rally, surpassing the $80,000 mark. This surge was fueled by a combination of factors, including a 90-day pause on tariffs announced by Trump, which boosted investor confidence and led to a rally in the cryptocurrency market. The rally saw Bitcoin climb over 7% to $82,350, marking a substantial increase in its value.

However, the rally was met with skepticism from prominent analyst Capo of Crypto. Despite the short-term upside, Capo warned that the broader macroeconomic picture points to serious trouble ahead. He argued that the 2020 money printing spree only delayed an inevitable collapse, and that quantitative tightening and high interest rates have since drained liquidity from the markets. Capo suggested that a recession is imminent, possibly triggering a global financial reset akin to the Great Depression. This broader shift toward central bank digital currencies, a digital economy, and the ISO 20022 financial messaging standard is expected to unfold between late 2025 and early 2026.

Capo provided his forecasts for four different scenarios. In the very short term, he predicted a relief bounce, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $92,000–$98,000, and altcoins rallying 50%–100%. In the short term, he expected potential capitulation triggered by geopolitical or macro shocks. In the medium term, he remained overall bullish, with the potential for an altseason, though smaller than past cycles. In the mid/long term, he warned of a severe downturn, with Bitcoin's recent strength seen as artificially driven by ETFs and stablecoin minting, while altcoins lag. He added that Bitcoin’s true behavior during a full-scale recession or depression is still untested, but such a scenario could bring extreme volatility and possibly the worst phase of the current cycle.

Despite the rally, Bitcoin's price has since fallen below $80,000 as the rally subsides. The decline in Bitcoin came alongside a renewed plunge in other markets, indicating that the rally may have been driven by short-term factors rather than long-term fundamentals. The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with investors closely watching for any signs of a sustained recovery or further declines.