Bitcoin surges 7% to $107,000 on Israel Iran ceasefire news

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a surge, rising from $100,000 to $107,000 at the start of the week, following news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This price movement has sparked a mix of optimism and caution among analysts regarding the cryptocurrency's future trajectory.

Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum, offered a nuanced perspective on Bitcoin's prospects. She argued that while the market is sentiment-driven and technical analysis signals, such as double tops, warrant caution, a full-fledged collapse is unlikely without a significant black swan event akin to the Terra or FTX crashes. According to Tischhauser, the current political and regulatory support, coupled with institutional capital inflows, could sustain a prolonged bull cycle for Bitcoin.

However, the cryptocurrency has been trading within a tight range of $100,000 to $110,000 in recent weeks, leading some analysts to speculate about a potential reversal in the trend. The double top formation, where the price reaches a high point twice before declining, is often interpreted as a bearish signal. Analysts like Tischhauser and Peter Brandt have suggested that Bitcoin could be forming a double top pattern above $100,000. If this pattern materializes, it could indicate a significant correction, with Bitcoin potentially falling 75% from its peak to around $27,000.

Brandt's analysis at the beginning of the month highlighted the potential for a double top pattern to form, with a 75% correction occurring. According to this pattern, a double top at $110,000 was considered, with a low level of $75,000 before the second top. If Bitcoin breaks below $75,000, it could confirm the double top pattern and lead to a substantial drop from the peak. However, Tischhauser remains cautious, stating that a major crash is unlikely unless a black swan event similar to those in 2022 occurs.