Bitcoin Surges 6% Weekly, Hits $103,800 on Advanced NVT Metric
1min read Bitcoin's price has surged above the $100,000 mark, reaching as high as $103,800, its highest level since January 2025. This impressive performance has sparked discussions about the potential for a parabolic rally. Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci highlighted that the Bitcoin Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) metric has exceeded a critical threshold, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics that could impact BTC's price.
The Advanced NVT metric is an enhanced version of the traditional NVT indicator, which measures the ratio of Network Value (market cap) to the volume (in USD) transferred through the blockchain daily. This refined metric provides a better understanding of extreme valuation conditions. When the Advanced NVT metric rises above its long-term moving average by more than two standard deviations (2xSD), it indicates that the BTC market cap growth does not align with its blockchain volume. Historically, this scenario has often preceded either an extended price rally or a severe market correction.
According to Kesmeci, the Bitcoin Advanced NVT is currently above the 2xSD threshold, although it may not remain at this level for an extended period. The analyst noted that the indicator typically does not stay above 2xSD unless Bitcoin is on the brink of a parabolic price rally. Kesmeci also mentioned that during a parabolic rally, the metric could potentially move much higher than 4xSD, as seen during the ETF rally following the approval of Spot ETFs.
Kesmeci emphasized that while historical data suggests that the Bitcoin Advanced NVT being above 2xSD often precedes a rally, it is not guaranteed that the indicator will drop below the 2xSD level. Therefore, investors should closely monitor this metric, as Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture that could define its long-term trajectory.
Over the past week, Bitcoin's price has regained a six-figure valuation for the first time since February. As of the latest update, the market leader is trading just above the $103,100 mark, reflecting a 0.5% increase in the past 24 hours. On a weekly basis, Bitcoin’s value has risen by more than 6%.
