Bitcoin Surges 6.9% to $122,000 on ETF Inflows and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Bitcoin's price has surged past $122,000, marking a significant milestone as it breaks through a multi-week high. This upward movement is driven by renewed inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), robust on-chain accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties stemming from President Trump’s imposition of 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico. Traders are now focusing on the $125,000–$130,000 resistance range as the next critical barrier.

The recent price surge follows a textbook bull flag resolution visible on both daily and 4-hour charts. Bitcoin has risen from the $114,000–$115,000 support zone and is now trading above all major exponential moving averages (EMAs) on the 4-hour chart. The Supertrend indicator on the daily chart has also flipped bullish above $112,357, further confirming the current upward trend. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) analysis on the weekly chart indicates a fresh Break of Structure (BOS) above $120,000, invalidating the prior bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) seen near $108,000. Bitcoin is now targeting a higher liquidity zone near $125,000.

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are expanding, with the price pushing the upper band near $122,000, indicating a classic volatility breakout structure. Bitcoin is also well above the mean band at $115,700, suggesting a momentum-led move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 30-minute chart peaked at 78.9 before slightly cooling to 68.3, showing a healthy intraday reset without structural damage. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains deeply positive, signaling sustained buying momentum despite short-term overbought conditions.

The upward movement in Bitcoin's price is driven by three key factors: geopolitical hedging, ETF-driven inflows, and bullish derivatives positioning. The macro environment shifted sharply after President Trump announced steep tariffs effective August 1, reigniting fears of a U.S.–EU trade war and prompting institutional hedging via crypto. At the same time, Bitcoin spot inflow data shows a massive $309 million net inflow on July 14, the highest single-day spike since March. From a derivatives perspective, total open interest has climbed 6.4% to $88.22 billion, with volume surging 123% to over $115 billion. The long/short ratio remains favorable to bulls, especially on Binance where top trader positions show a dominant 1.83 long bias.

Bitcoin's market cap dominance is approaching a critical apex around 65%, nearing a multi-year symmetrical triangle breakout on the weekly dominance chart. A resolution to the upside could trigger a broader rotation out of altcoins and back into Bitcoin, adding further fuel to the rally. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) on the daily is also strongly bullish. The +DI (40.86) has pulled far away from the -DI (22.79), while ADX (10.39) is rising, indicating a strong trending phase. This indicator stack reinforces the view that Bitcoin is entering a momentum breakout environment.

The structure of the market remains in favor of bulls. Liquidity zones between $103,000 and $108,000 now act as strong support following the breakout. Spot buyers continue to dominate, with Bitcoin reclaiming all key resistance zones over the past 10 days. The next resistance lies near $125,500, which marks the mid-supply zone from a prior failed breakout in late 2024. Beyond that, bulls may aim for $130,000 and the extended Fibonacci projection at $136,000, a level echoed by Ledn CEO John Glover as a possible year-end target. On the downside, immediate support rests at $118,200 (20 EMA 4H) and $117,700 (50 EMA). A failure to hold this zone could trigger a minor pullback toward the $114,000–$115,000 range. However, unless U.S. CPI data on July 17 surprises to the upside, momentum remains firmly with the bulls.

Traders should monitor inflation data and Fed tone closely. If CPI cools as expected, risk-on flows could extend Bitcoin’s upside leg into $125,000+ by midweek. The continued expansion of the US stock cryptocurrency concept is evident as BiyaPay supports users to trade US stocks using USDT, further integrating traditional financial markets with the cryptocurrency ecosystem. This development aligns with the growing acceptance and adoption of digital assets, providing users with more flexible and efficient trading options.

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