Bitcoin Surges 6.67% as Trump's Tariff Pause Boosts Market Confidence

Bitcoin experienced a significant recovery last week, reclaiming the $85,000 mark. This surge was driven by a wave of macro optimism following the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to temporarily suspend new tariffs for 90 days, which eased trade tensions and boosted investor risk appetite. Notably, this recovery was not fueled by leveraged derivative positions but by genuine market demand, demonstrating strong buyer confidence. By the end of the week, Bitcoin had increased by 6.67%, extending its rally by 15% from the low and indicating that the current adjustment period—lasting 83 days with a 31% decline—remains within the normal range of mid-cycle corrections observed in previous bull markets.

Data from major exchanges shows a sustained strong buying force, but the price remains stuck in the $75,000 to $85,000 range. This divergence suggests a potential breakout if the supply continues to decrease. However, a short-term correction at the beginning of this week is anticipated, primarily due to profit-taking. The market's response to this decline—whether buyers will continue to absorb the supply—will determine if Bitcoin advances to the $90,000 mark. On-chain data also supports the positive trend, as the accumulation of long-term investors has turned positive for the first time since December. While the initial signals are promising, the strength of the trend will depend on how demand holds up during any short-term weakness.

March brought a brief respite as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased slightly due to declines in energy and transportation costs. However, beneath this temporary calm, a storm is brewing: new tariff measures, particularly recent U.S. policies, are set to drive prices higher in the coming months. Core inflation, especially in services and housing, remains elevated, reinforcing concerns that inflationary pressures are far from subsiding. This unstable inflationary backdrop coincides with growing turmoil in financial markets. Rapidly changing trade policies—initially increasing tariffs, then hastily reversing them—have shaken global confidence in the U.S. economic direction, leading to capital outflows from U.S. assets.

The U.S. dollar has weakened significantly, Treasury yields have surged, and market volatility has increased, indicating a more tense environment. Even the short-term rally in the S&P 500 was not enough to alleviate fears, as investors grapple with the fallout from erratic policies. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment is plummeting. The latest survey from the University of Michigan shows a severe decline in confidence and a surge in inflation expectations to their highest levels since the early 1980s. Households are bracing for persistent inflation and rising unemployment, cutting spending and preparing for economic hardship. This erosion of financial and consumer confidence suggests that the U.S. economy is at a critical juncture. As inflation fears clash with slowing growth, the Federal Reserve faces a tough balancing act: it may need to delay interest rate cuts while trying to control inflation and avoid a full-blown recession. The combination of tariff-driven inflation, policy-induced market volatility, and collapsing consumer confidence paints a grim picture: unless clarity and stability return soon, the U.S. economy may be entering its most challenging phase since the pandemic.

Last week, Galaxy Digital received approval from the SEC to restructure in Delaware and list on the Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY. This strategic move marks the growing acceptance of digital asset investments by traditional U.S. capital markets. However, the darker side of unregulated hype was also exposed. In Argentina, a congressional investigation was launched into the Libra token—a memecoin on Solana that President Javier Milei had publicly endorsed before its value plummeted by over 90%, wiping out billions of dollars in market capitalization. Initially a symbol of innovation, it quickly became a scandal, with lawmakers demanding explanations and even calling for Milei's impeachment. In the U.S., North Carolina is taking a cautious but optimistic approach by introducing the Digital Asset Freedom Act, which allows certain types of cryptocurrencies to be used for tax payments and transactions, provided they meet stringent standards for liquidity, decentralization, and long-term market integrity. With these multifaceted developments—from institutional acceptance to political fallout—the crypto landscape continues to evolve as both a transformative tool and a mirror reflecting the challenges of disruption.

Bitcoin is experiencing a robust recovery driven by genuine buyer confidence, but the market must navigate short-term adjustments to confirm the upward trend. Meanwhile, the global macroeconomic environment is volatile, presenting challenges for both traditional and crypto markets. The world of cryptocurrency remains a beacon of transformation but also a reflection of the risks and lessons from innovation.