Bitcoin Surges 5.95% as Stock Market Volatility Drives Correlation

Bitcoin has experienced a significant surge, rising by 5.95% over the past 24 hours. This increase comes amidst a period of high correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market, a trend that has been particularly evident since August 2024. The U.S. market has seen a sharp decline following the announcement of global tariffs six days ago, with the S&P 500 experiencing three consecutive days of decline. This downturn in the stock market has had a ripple effect on the crypto market, with analysts suggesting that Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to stock market movements.

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has shown a high correlation with the S&P 500, with the correlation ratio evolving around 0.8. This indicates a strong relationship between the two assets. Since September 2024, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have remained closely correlated. The correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin has also been significant, with the ratio sitting around 0.8 since mid-August 2024. This correlation has become more pronounced as the global market crashed following widespread tariffs. The same pattern was observed the past day after speculation of a 90-day tariff pause, with all major indexes surging from this speculation. The Nasdaq composite rose by 0.1% as tech-related stocks recovered, and Bitcoin surged to a high of $81,180.

Looking at comparative rolling performance, Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq have all followed the same pattern through March and April 2025. Over this period, all these assets declined, suggesting a strong market correlation arising from macroeconomic stress and risk-off sentiment. This is further validated by Bitcoin’s relative drawdowns, where Bitcoin has followed the same correlation risk with other assets. Drawdowns are synchronized with equities, hinting at risk-on/risk-off macro sentiment correlations. Therefore, the recent market performance shows that there’s no doubt, Bitcoin is still highly correlated with the stock market.

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Bitcoin is currently highly correlated with stock markets. Therefore, if stock markets see extreme volatility and uncertainty, the same fate will face Bitcoin. Conversely, a recovery in macroeconomics and stock markets means institutional investors are strong enough, thus boosting Bitcoin to higher prices. If recent uncertainty in the stock market persists, Bitcoin will continue fluctuating with $74,000 as a strong support level. Conversely, if the market cools down restoring confidence among investors, Bitcoin will reclaim $82,500.