Bitcoin Surges 5.71% in Week, Nears All-Time High

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $107,666, just below its all-time high of $111,970. This cryptocurrency has experienced a 5.71% increase over the past week, accompanied by a significant 32% surge in its 24-hour trading volume. This recent upward trend has sparked speculation about whether Bitcoin will surpass its historical record with its current momentum, with supporting indicators from blockchain data and price trends suggesting this potential.

Funding rates on major exchanges, a crucial market indicator, are modestly positive, peaking at around 0.009%. This suggests investor optimism without excessive use of leverage. The decline in funding rates on June 21, followed by a recovery, indicates a healthy market cooldown from overheated long positions, setting the stage for a sustainable upward trend. Additionally, the net outflow of BTC from exchanges is noteworthy. This shift from net inflows to outflows since June 20 is often interpreted as a sign of long-term confidence, as investors move assets to more secure cold storage. This declining exchange inflow indicates less short-term selling pressure, further enhancing the chance of a sustained price increase.

Bitcoin’s price increased by 0.29% today and 5.71% over the past week, reaching a high of $108,798. The accompanying 32% rise in 24-hour trading volume points to renewed market interest. Furthermore, Bitcoin is now just 3.8% away from its all-time high, suggesting a potential test of the $112,000 level if the current momentum persists. Surpassing a recent peak of $108,800 could trigger breakout trades and a short squeeze. However, bullish investors should be wary of potential sell-offs near the psychological barrier of $110,000, which serves as a significant hurdle before revisiting the historical peak.

Bitcoin's price has been on a steady ascent, reaching $107,249, just shy of its all-time high of $112,000. This upward trajectory has been fueled by a combination of factors, including a rising correlation with the S&P 500 index, which recently hit a new all-time high of 6,223.75. The S&P 500's surge has been driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility, and its rally has brought the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) close, hinting at a potential bullish crossover in the coming days. The increasing correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 suggests that Bitcoin could follow the index's footsteps and revisit its all-time high. This optimism is further supported by the chances of a September rate cut spiking, which could fuel a risk-on sentiment and drive Bitcoin's next uptrend.

The Time Price Opportunity (TPO) chart for Bitcoin highlights key levels to watch, with the naked Point of Control (nPOC) formed at $109,650 on the June 11 trading session serving as the key resistance level. On the contrary, the buy tails at $104,347 and $103,463 are key support levels. The daily Bitcoin price chart shows clear signs of bullish momentum, with the 50-day SMA at $105,844 preventing a breakdown over the past five days. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) has produced a green histogram above the mean level, indicating a shift in momentum favoring bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above its mean level, indicating a market dominated by buyers. The declining parallel channel’s upper trend line will face a retest for the third time, with traders expecting a breakout. A decisive daily candlestick close above $107,858 will confirm the said breakout and potentially propel BTC price to $112,424, which is a conservative target and is present just above the current ATH of $112,000. A move to $116,923 would signal a new record high for BTC.

However, traders need to be careful as a breakdown of the $100,000 psychological level would invalidate the aforementioned bullish outlook. This development could trigger a flurry of panic sell orders, potentially leading to a liquidation cascade and catalyzing a swift correction to $96,852 and $93,375. These two levels served as a base that propelled Bitcoin price up by nearly 20% to $112,000. Hence, investors can expect a short-term relief between $93,000 and $97,000. A dire case scenario could see the BTC price revisit $90,000, where an unfilled buy-side imbalance is present, reaching up to $87,000.

Bitcoin's recent price action has been characterized by a series of bullish technical indicators, including the 50-SMA support, rising RSI, and AO momentum. These indicators suggest that a new all-time high is likely unless BTC loses $100,000. The chances of an uptrend are high, with the failure to produce a lower low during the ongoing consolidation adding credence to the demand and forecasting BTC price could revisit the nPOC at $109,650. The declining parallel channel’s upper trend line will face a retest for the third time, with traders expecting a breakout. A decisive daily candlestick close above $107,858 will confirm the said breakout and potentially propel BTC price to $112,424, which is a conservative target and is present just above the current ATH of $112,000. A move to $116,923 would signal a new record high for BTC.