Bitcoin Surges 40% Since April, Hovers Near $109,000 All-Time High

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near its all-time high of $109,000, with the price hovering around $105,300. This surge marks a 40% increase since early April, yet the market sentiment remains cautious despite the significant price rally. Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin has been trading within a parallel channel pattern, with the upper line of this channel acting as a resistance point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicators both show bearish divergence from the price action, suggesting that momentum might be stalling.

Historically, Bitcoin's rallies have been characterized by overheated funding rates and aggressive market buying volume. However, this time around, funding rates have remained moderate, and buy volume on major exchanges has been trending downward. This could indicate a more stable and sustainable rally, driven by long-term participants rather than short-term speculators. The steady uptrend in buy volume since 2023 supports this notion, hinting that Bitcoin still has room to grow if key support levels hold.

Bitcoin is currently battling key supply levels after a volatile weekend, with the price briefly touching $107,000 before retracing over 4% into lower demand zones. This sharp move has triggered caution across the market, with many analysts considering the possibility of a pullback. Support and resistance levels have formed a tight range, with Bitcoin consolidating between $103,600 and $105,500 on the 4-hour chart. The overall price structure suggests a potential breakout attempt, but failure to hold current levels could lead to a retest of the psychologically important $100,000 mark.

Both the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages continue to slope upward, reflecting the strength of the ongoing uptrend. Bitcoin remains well above both indicators, showing that the macro trend remains intact for now. However, if Bitcoin loses $103,600 support, bearish momentum could quickly build, potentially triggering a deeper correction. The next few days will be decisive for Bitcoin’s short-term price action, with the market divided on whether to expect a breakout to new highs or a shakeout.