Bitcoin Surges 4.4% to $103,700 on Trade Deal Optimism

Bitcoin has extended its winning streak to six consecutive weeks, driven by renewed market optimism following President Donald Trump's announcement of a trade agreement with the U.K. The cryptocurrency was trading at $103,700, requiring only a 4.4% increase to reach its all-time high. This surge in price is attributed to several factors, including the trade agreement, significant inflows into spot ETFs, and optimistic price targets set by top analysts.

The trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. has instilled confidence in the market, as it is expected to mitigate recession risks and increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, ongoing negotiations between top U.S. and China officials in Switzerland aim to lower tariffs, further boosting market sentiment. Beijing’s delegation, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, is expected to take a hardline stance against Trump’s escalating trade offensive, but the overall market outlook remains positive.

Analysts are highly bullish on Bitcoin. Standard Chartered analysts have revised their price target, now expecting Bitcoin to end the year at $200,000, up from their previous target of $120,000. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, predicts that Bitcoin’s price will surge to $700,000 over time, citing its strong performance compared to equities during key crises like the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest believes that the Bitcoin price will climb to $2.4 million by 2030, bringing its diluted valuation to $50.4 trillion, which would make it bigger than the combined GDP of the U.S. and China. Tom Lee, the founder of FundStrat, believes that Bitcoin will jump to $250,000 this year, while Chamath Palihapitiya sees it jumping to $500,000. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, also sees it jumping to $250,000, arguing that Bitcoin is a better asset than gold or silver due to its 21 million supply cap.

The underlying theme among most analysts is the rising demand for Bitcoin, evidenced by the $40 billion inflows into spot ETFs. Simultaneously, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges continues to fall and is at its lowest level in five years. This scarcity, combined with increasing demand, is driving the price higher.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price chart shows that it has remained in an uptrend for a long time. Its recent retreat found substantial support at the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since November 2022. Bitcoin also remains above the upper side of the cup and handle pattern at $68,835 and the 50-week moving average. The likely price target in this cycle is $123,000, derived by measuring the cup’s depth and then the same distance from the upper side. This technical analysis supports the bullish sentiment and suggests that more gains will follow as Bitcoin crosses its all-time high at $109,300.