Bitcoin Surges 4% to $109,420 as July Bullish Trend Begins

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of a bullish trend in July, following a 4% surge on July 2, reaching approximately $109,420 during the mid-North American trading session. This upward movement comes after Bitcoin closed June with its highest monthly close since inception, despite facing midterm bearish sentiment due to significant short leverage trades and consistent negative funding rates in June.

Several factors are expected to influence Bitcoin's price action in July. One key factor is the exponential growth of the global money supply (M2), which Bitcoin's price has mirrored. The U.S. government's need to increase its budget deficit implies a higher money supply in the near term, a scenario that is extremely bullish for Bitcoin. Additionally, the performance of U.S. spot BTC ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which recorded a net cash inflow of about $12.8 billion in the last three months, will heavily influence BTC's performance in July. The rising demand from institutional investors has also caused a sharp decline in disposable coins on centralized exchanges, exacerbating the supply vs. demand shock.

Bitcoin's price has rallied above a crucial resistance logarithmic trendline following Wednesday’s pump. If buyers maintain the price above $109k in the coming weeks, the flagship coin is well-positioned to rally towards a new all-time high. According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, BTC price could rally beyond its all-time high in July, fueled by easing geopolitical tensions and rising demand from institutional investors. The bullish sentiment in July is also bolstered by the fact that BTC has majorly recorded gains in more Julys in the last ten years. However, the midterm bullish sentiment will be invalidated if BTC price retraces towards the lower border of the falling channel, around the support range between $92k and $96k.

On-chain data indicates that institutional investors have aggressively accumulated more BTC, contributing to the bullish sentiment. Easing geopolitical tensions and an anticipated Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025 also spell macro bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. Market analysts have identified a recurring pattern of strong Bitcoin performance during the month of July, with historical data indicating average returns exceeding 9%. Notably, Bitcoin’s peak July surge in 2020 saw gains of nearly 24%, followed by consistent positive momentum in subsequent years. These seasonal trends, combined with current institutional buying and macroeconomic factors, suggest a favorable risk-reward profile for Bitcoin investors this month. Analysts project that Bitcoin could potentially reach new all-time highs, with targets around $116,000 being discussed within the trading community.

Despite a brief period of bearish divergence and resistance near the $107,000 level, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience by reclaiming this threshold and maintaining upward momentum. Technical indicators suggest that the cryptocurrency is poised to challenge previous resistance zones, supported by renewed buying interest and positive market sentiment. Traders and investors are closely monitoring these developments, as a sustained breakout could signal the end of Bitcoin’s recent consolidation phase and the beginning of a robust bullish cycle. Bitcoin’s recent price surge above $107,000, driven by institutional accumulation and a weakening U.S. dollar, underscores its growing significance as a strategic asset. Historical performance trends for July further enhance the outlook for potential gains, while technical signals indicate a possible breakout from current resistance levels. Investors should remain attentive to market dynamics and macroeconomic factors that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks. As July unfolds, the cryptocurrency market may witness renewed momentum, offering opportunities for both traders and long-term holders.