Bitcoin Surges 30% in Q2 2025 Amid Institutional Investment and Legislative Support

Bitcoin is poised to reach new all-time highs in the second half of 2025, driven by significant institutional investment and favorable legislative developments. Large firms have begun accumulating more Bitcoin on their balance sheets, while Capitol Hill is moving closer to passing long-delayed legislation that could further boost the cryptocurrency's appeal.

The price of Bitcoin climbed about 30% in the second quarter of 2025, despite most traders considering it a consolidation phase. The coin's monthly returns faded, and it remained within a tight range for most of the quarter. However, it still managed to gain 15% in the first half of the year, although this was weaker than the 45% jump during the same period in the previous year. Bitcoin has maintained its position above $100,000 since May 9, 2025, trading at $108,000 on Sunday, just 3% below its May record of $111,999.

Devin Ryan, who heads financial tech research at Citizens, believes that there is still an acceleration coming around ETF adoption, with more money flowing into these investment vehicles. Ryan noted that people are transitioning from owning no Bitcoin to owning some, and the barriers to Bitcoin access are disappearing. He stated, “We’re moving closer to the end of the consolidation. The path is higher from here.”

A group of publicly traded companies, known as Bitcoin treasury companies, is driving the push for more Bitcoin adoption. These companies either already hold Bitcoin as a main asset or are planning to. Some of these firms, including Nakamoto, Twenty One, and Strive Asset Management, are going through mergers with other listed companies to raise capital by offering equity and using it to buy Bitcoin. Steven Lubka, the VP of investor relations at Nakamoto, noted that a lot of this capital hasn’t even touched the market yet, as it is waiting on SEC approval for the mergers. Lubka said, “We have not yet seen the full impact of even just the money that’s already lined up.”

Lubka also pointed out that adoption isn’t the only driver right now. The broader macro setup is turning bullish, with rising fiscal spending, surging stock prices, and a supportive administration. Lubka believes that Bitcoin’s maturity as an asset class, combined with a huge amount of capital coming in through new financialization vehicles, will produce a material bull market. He added, “You’re going to see a ton of fiscal spending, and you also have an administration that’s pro-Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin’s next leg higher could be helped by developments in Washington. Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, believes that the political landscape could play a major role in the third quarter. If the President replaces Jerome Powell as Fed chair, markets could start betting on earlier rate cuts, which may boost investor confidence in the central bank’s independence. Kendrick also flagged a potential law: the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill now working its way through Congress. He believes it could pass in the third quarter and trigger a ton of new retail demand, with Bitcoin being the prime beneficiary.

However, Kendrick noted that prices could get messy around late September due to fears tied to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. In this cycle, the coin usually dumps around 18 months after a halving, when the rate of new supply is slashed. The last halving happened in April 2024, which puts that potential correction window directly into the second half of 2025. Still, Kendrick isn’t backing off his forecast. He believes the current demand, especially from ETFs and treasury companies, will be enough to hold up the price even if some long-term holders start unloading. Kendrick said, “The key this time will be whether increased ETF and Bitcoin treasury flows are enough to offset any other selling by long-term holders. We think they will be.”

By Kendrick’s estimate, Bitcoin could rise to $135,000 by the end of the third quarter, and then finish the year at $200,000. He expects that once investors stop worrying about another cycle repeat, the crypto will keep rising. Kendrick wrote, “Once market concerns about this have passed, we expect Bitcoin to continue to rise to our end-Q4 forecast.”